From my armchair: QB prospect thoughts

I think that a person that has watched a lot of football over many years has about as good a chance of calling it right on which college QBs will make it in the Pros as the hired guy who crunches data and measures everything. It is just a very hard position to evaluate and project to the Pro level. As one of the ex-GMs I was listening to on the Sirius NFL station said, the human factor looms large. It has every bit as much to do with a QBs success as his physical ability. Have they already reached their peak development? Is getting drafted high their real goal (even if they don't consciously realize it), versus being a great Pro? Does the money change them and lessen their desire to work? Did the college system they played in disguise their weaknesses? Are they of poor character and getting let loose from college where they are monitored and watched like hawks suddenly allows them to go off the rails and be who they really are? And more.

All that said, here's what I think of the top guys.

While I think that Lawrence is supremely talented, I don't see a very disciplined guy. He's very much look-at-me. I don't see a leader. Maybe he'll grow into it..... maybe he won't. He by no means is a sure thing. He's another one that his highlight reels are mostly about him taking off and running..... much like for Wentz in college. The problem for him is that he's not the uber fast and slick runner Lamar Jackson. And he's not Russell Wilson who can run because he is plenty fast and is built like a LB. Lawrence is going to be a big target to hit. Not against him at all. Just not sold that his talent will translate well into the NFL over time.

Another supremely talented guy is Wilson. He's got it all. But..... he just hasn't started that many college games nor against top competition. Big....red... flag. Not saying he won't transition. But that he's going to the Jets means he's being set up for failure. He won't be given the chance he needs to develop for ideally about 2 years. He'll be thrown to the wolves on a bad team in a terrible media world with impatient fans and a team that goes through head coaches like a shopping cart through the Supermarket aisles.

Justin Fields. No use talking about him in my book. He's off my personal board because of his epilepsy. Feel sorry for him. He's a good player; but again running is such a big part of his game. No way I draft a guy with that big of a built-in medical risk who is almost certain to get a concussion or two as well.

Lance. Never saw him play. But when a kid has that few starts at that size and division of school I'm immediately suspicious. What I hope for him is that he goes late in the 1st round to a good team that will give him a couple of years to develop before they even think about turning the reins over to him.

Mac Jones. Probably the most Pro ready. Not a great athlete. Really good from the neck up. Good enough arm. Good enough pocket mobility. Played around great talent. He's not a guy that can carry a team, but he can lead a really good one. Good leader. When the Niner's draft him he'll be going to an ideal situation, especially if they hang on to Jimmy G one more season in order to give Jones time to come up to speed.

Kyle Trask. Second most Pro ready. The only reason he's not more Pro ready (like Jones) is because he didn't play in as many games as Jones. Really good from the neck up. Accurate. Good enough arm. Seems to decipher what the D is doing. So-so pocket mobility but seems to feel the rush (in a good way). Another guy that can't carry a team, but put him on a good team and he'll be good. Good leader. He's always the afterthought QB, and so he will never stop trying to get better, and will be the humble good guy that is going to make some franchise really glad they drafted him. He will be content to sit and wait his turn..... because he's always had to.

Again, this is arm chair stuff only. It's a fan's view. That said, if I was to speculate on what things look like 4 or 5 years from now, I'd bet on Jones and Trask as doing the best. Lawrence so-so. Wilson is the one that intrigues me and could be superior or go the other way. Lance I think might have a decent ceiling but also a pretty low floor just looking at his college career. But he will also take the longest to develop.

Getting drafted into the right situation is always critical. Lawrence and Wilson are going to get drafted into poor situations. Jones excellent situation. And likely so will Trask because he'll probably be a second day pick and so won't be seen as an immediate solution, and has a reasonable chance to go to a team that has an older QB that they are looking to replace in a couple of years.

Frankly, if in the off chance Trask was there at 57 for the Rams, they shouldn't waste any time. They should take him. I think he's got a chance to be a Warner-like Pro.



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 04/25/2021 03:25AM by RockRam.