Clevanalytics 2024 NFL PREVIEW GUIDE

REVIEW & ANALYSIS OFFENSE ADVANCED RANKS
DEFENSE ADVANCED RANKS
DIVISION 2023 REC VEGAS WIN TOTAL '24
POS

STARTER PLAYERS LOST
DE Braden Fiske (R) ---Jonah Williams
NT Bobby Brown III
DT Kobie Turner ---Aaron Donald
LOLB Jared Verse (R)
LILB Christian Rozeboom
RILB Ernest Jones IV
ROLB Byron Young
LCB Darious Williams ---Ahkello Witherspoon
SS Kamren Curl
FS Russ Yeast
RCB Tre'davious White
NB Quentin Lake
POS

STARTER PLAYERS LOST
LWR Demarcus Robinson
RWR Puka Nacua
SWR Cooper Kupp
LT Alaric Jackson
LG Jonah Jackson
C Steve Avila ---Coleman Shelton
RG Kevin Dotson
RT Rob Havenstein
TE Tyler Higbee
QB Matthew Stafford
RB Kyren Williams
2023 SCHEDULE
WK

OPP SCORE
1 @ W 30-13
2 v L 23-30
3 @ L 16-19
4 @ W 29-23
5 v L 14-23
6 v W 26-9
7 v L 17-24
8 @ L 20-43
9 @ L 3-20
11 v W 17-16
12 @ W 37-14
13 v W 36-19
14 @ L 31-37
15 v W 28-20
16 v W 30-22
17 @ W 26-25
18 @ W 21-20
EPA Per Play
Pass EPA
Rush EPA
Success
Success Ex To
Turnover EPA
9
11
8
9
9
9
EPA Per Play
Pass EPA
Rush EPA
Success
Success Ex To
Turnover EPA
20
18
13
11
10
30
DEFENSE DEPTH CHART
LUCK FACTOR RANKS
2024 SCHEDULE
WK

OPP SPREAD
1 @ +3
2 @ -2.5
3 v +3
4 @ +1.5
5 v -1.5
7 v -4.5
8 v -3.5
9 @ -1.5
10 v -1
11 @ -4
12 v -0.5
13 @ -1.5
14 v +1
15 @ +6.5
16 @ +3
17 v -6
18 v -5.5
OL/DL RANKS
Pass Block Eff.
Adj Sack Rate
OFFENSE DEPTH CHART
SOS* based on TA's power rankings
SOS 6/32 SOS* 15/32
1 = Hardest Schedule
1 = Lucky / 32 = Unlucky
LES SNEAD SEAN MCVAY
MIKE LAFLEUR CHRIS SHULA
NFC WEST (10-7) (8.5) LOS ANGELES
RAMS
Adj Games Lost
Blended 4Q Win%
Over Expected
Fumble Rec%
Opp FG%
Net TO
(17)
(4)
(21) (31)
(10)
2023 Season in Review Very little was expected of the 2023 LA Rams but they turned out to be one of the biggest
surprises in the NFL, winning 10 games and making the Playoffs. Their season win total (6.5) was tied for 2nd lowest
in the league and they exceeded this number by the widest margin (tied w HOU at +3.5). In fact, I was probably the
most wrong on the Rams than any other team last season. QB Matthew Stafford and WR Cooper Kupp were getting
older and coming off season-ending injuries. In fact, with a loaded QB draft I thought if things went south early, I
thought they could look to trade Stafford. I also could not see the emergence of 5th round pick WR Puka Nacua
(4th best yards per route for a rookie in the last decade), jumpstarting this offense. The offense was dynamite,
finishing top 10 in the NFL in EPA, and in the eight games with both RB Kyren Williams and Kupp in the lineup, the
Rams offense ranked 2nd in EPA. HC Sean McVay did a tremendous job evolving his offense into yet another
juggernaut. Led by DC Raheem Morris, the defense was also a revelation, considering their defensive lineup was
barren of many proven players outside of Aaron Donald. Although they finished just 21st in EPA, that was even
better than most could have predicted. Rookies DL Kobie Turner and Bryant Young stepped up in a huge way,
generating nearly 100 pressures and 19 sacks.

Luck Factor
After years of rarely facing major injuries, the Rams suffered the worst injury luck on offense and 13th
most on defense in 2022. But in 2023 the Rams went right back to their old ways and saw the lowest number of
adjusted games lost due to injury on defense and the 4th lowest on offense. Stafford, Kupp and Williams missed a
couple of games each but in general the key players on both sides stayed relatively healthy. As mentioned above,
the Rams defense finished just 21st in EPA but they gained the 2nd least amount of EPA due to turnovers and the
lowest in close game situations. They fumbled on offense just seven times all season, the 2nd lowest in the NFL and
forced just 15 fumbles on defense, the 9th lowest figure. LA finished 6-4 in one score games, however, that is a bit
misleading. They won two separate “close games” by eight over WAS and NO when leading by 21+ early in the 4th
and sitting on 99%-win probabilities. They also beat the Niners in a meaningless week 18 game by one so with the
normal roster the Rams were essentially .500 in close games. It should be noted that the one area that LA really
struggled with was their 32nd ranked special teams. They missed four extra points and 11 FGs, most in the NFL
since 2015. They were also terrible on punts and kick off returns, as they generated the 6th worst special teams by
DVOA in NFL history

Schedule Analysis
LA faced the 7th toughest schedule last season but are expected to see a league average level
of opponent this season. Most of their games are virtual coin flips and all but one of their 17 games have a spread
of less than six points according to my ratings. There really isn’t much to talk about in regard to this schedule as it’s
fairly benign either way for the Rams.

Offseason
We can’t start this look at the Rams off season without starting with the abrupt retirement of DL Aaron
Donald. For my money Donald is the best DT of all time and has been a dominant force since day one. The gravity
of the attention being paid to him by offenses, and especially multiple OL, leads to so many opportunities for other
DL on the Rams. The loss is not only because of his individual talents but those advantages with other guys on
defense for the Rams are gone now too. The Rams will try and plug that gigantic hole in the middle of the DL with
the drafting of 2nd round pick Braden Fiske from FSU. They also added DE Jared Verse in the first round, also from
FSU, to give the Rams a refresh on the front four. They will look to strike gold in back-to-back seasons along the
front four after the Rams found two mid round gems in Turner and Young. We will see if those guys are really that
good or if Donald’s presence led to those advantageous matchups. The Rams shook up their CB room a bit with
the additions of former Rams CB Darious Williams and CB Tre’Davious White from Buffalo. White is coming off a
torn Achilles early last season so it remains to be seen when he can play and obviously the number of snaps will be
limited. Williams posted a career season last year in Jacksonville (4 INTs and 4th among CBs in PFF coverage grade)
and returns to LA where he started his career. The Rams will have to move on with a new DC as Raheem Morris left
for the HC job in ATL. Morris has proven to be one of the better DCs in the NFL so new DC Chris Shula has some
proving to do. On offense, LA added a solid starting G in Jonah Jackson from the Lions and will be moving 2022
2nd round pick Steve Avilla to C. The rest of the offense is intact from a season ago.

2024 Outlook
At this point it is hard to fade Sean McVay going into a season. The Rams should still be excellent on
offense as long as their key pieces stay healthy. That’s a big if considering the injury history of Stafford, Kupp and
Williams. Defensively is where the concern lies with the loss of Donald. The front four has talent but we really have
no idea how they will play without maybe the best defensive player of all time eating up attention. The secondary is
going to rely on Williams to continue his excellent play from a season ago in Jacksonville, but that came after two
poor seasons, and it’s been proven that CB play is very volatile from year to year. I wouldn’t bank on a lot from
White, coming off the Achilles tear. The roster in general is very fragile as depth is not a strong suit for the Rams.
But I think this team has enough upside to make a Super Bowl run, but the defense and roster fragility is what
dampens this upside. If you like the Rams, I’d look at the upside, tail outcomes.