Part of it numbers game, more UDFAs than 4th-7th rounders

in 2022 it 28% if NFL was UDFA last year, some years as high as 30%-33%
but a lot of them are special teamers- so don't let that fool you too much


Also, year in and year out, roughly 40-50 players in a draft end up having a great to very good careers--
and only 15 of them are first-rounders.

"great to very good" is my translation of the terms they use--it's guys who were All-pro or Pro Bowl level
but may not have gone--they track players some do really well, others average others bad-

So---stick with me--

This means there are 40-50 guys who play like first-rounders in their career and of those
40-50 only 15 or so were actually taken in 1st round.

there are 25-35 guys every year that have as good a career as first rounders
also means have of first-rounders bust

There were (2022)
14.5% of all NFL players 1st round
12.5% 2nd round
13% 3rd round
10%-4th
9.5% -5h
6.5% -6th
6% - 7th
28% UDFA
4th-5th round are about the same--no difference in 4th and 5th rounder
5-6th rounders are the same--no difference
(numbers rounded--may not be exact 100%)

so it drops off but rounds 1-3 are not that far apart in terms of the amount of players on roster
then it flattens in 4-5
then down in 6-7 but it is flat
then the 28% of UDFA

This means that on average there are gems after round one...

most people know this but had never been told the numbers before.

I am sure if it were broken into picks we'd see that mid-2d round mid-3rd round is the same
and maybe mid-3rd to end 5ish the same and so on, but was not given to me that way

Turner, just by odds, has as much a chance at a good career as 2nd rounder, though he was a late 3rd so
prob a little less.

All those 7ths, no difference between them and 6ths---
UDFAs, minus the kickers and punters and LS--quality about same as 6-7

Just matters if you can find the gems late compared to others
and there is quality in 2nd and third but not real drop off between
them and not as much quality in 1st round as you'd expect