Predicting Goff's next contract based on historical trends

I'll jump right to the conclusion: 5 yr., $165M, $33M per year average (which works out to 15.35% of a projected 2021 cap of $215,000,000). I'd love to see your prediction, but please consider the trend over the last 15 years when doing so.

Listed below are current starting QBs along with some info related to their second contracts. (Not included are current QBs who are on their first contract and current QBs who were not considered starters when they signed their second contract.)

Data listed include the year they signed that 2nd contract, their rank the prior year (based on QBR, minimum of 200 attempts), length of contract, total amount, average amount, and what percent of that year's cap the average amount is.

Note that the annual salary as a percentage of the cap has crept up to nearly 16%

Note that guys who are as low as 11th to 15th in their contract year still command top dollar. Even guys with 7 career starts (Rodgers and Garoppolo) cashed in on their 2nd contract.

2005, Brady, 9th in 2004, 4 yr., $48M, $12M (13.56%)

2006, Brees, 10th in 2005, 5 yr., $60M, $12M (11.76%)

2008, Roethlisberger, 2nd in 2007, 6 yr., $88M, $14.66M (12.64%)

2008, Rodgers, not rated - 7 career starts in 3 years, 5 yr., $63.5M, $12.7M (10.95%)

2009, E. Manning, 14th in 2008, 6 yr., $97.5M, $16.25M (13.21%)

2009, Rivers, 1st in 2008, 6 yr., $91.8M, $15.3M (12.44%)

2013, Ryan, 6th in 2012, 5 yr., $103.75M, $20.75M (16.87%)

2013, Stafford, 25th in 2012, 3 yr., $53M, $17.67M (14.36%)

2013, Flacco, 14th in 2012, 6 yr., $120.6M, $20.1M (16.34%)

2014, Smith, 13th in 2013, 4 yr., $68M, $17M (12.78%)

2014, Dalton, 14th in 2013, 6 yr., $96M, $16M (12.03%)

2015, Wilson, 11th in 2014, 4 yr., $87.6M, $21.9M (15.28%)

2015, Newton, 2nd in 2014, 5 yr., $103.8M, $20.76M (14.49%)

2015, Tannehill, 15th in 2014, 4 yr., $77M, $19.25M (13.44%)

2016, Luck, 33rd in 2015 (7 games), 7th in 2014, 5 yr., $123M, $24.59M (15.83%)

2017, Carr, 9th in 2016, 5 yr., $125M, $25M (14.97%)

2018, Cousins, 13th in 2017, 3 yr., $84M, $28M (15.8%)

2018, Garoppolo, not rated - 7 career starts, 5 yr., $137.5M, $27.5M (15.51%)

---------------------------- projections --------------------------------------------------------

2020, Marriotta, 22nd in 2018, 5 yr., $145M, $29M (14.5%)

2020, Winston, 24th in 2018, 5 yr., $145M, $29M (14.5%)

2020, Prescott, 14th in 2018, 5 yr., $152M, $30.4M (15.2%)

2021 Wentz, 7th in 2018, 5 yr., 165M, $33M (15.35%)

2021 Goff, 8th in 2018, 5 yr., 165M, $33M (15.35%)

---

AlbaNY_Ram



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/20/2019 04:47PM by AlbaNY_Ram.