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ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
Preview of MNF between the Rams and CardinalsStruggling StaffordRussell Baxter
The Rams started the season 8-1 and Matthew Stafford was looking like a front-runner for the MVP Award who had been held back by playing with Detroit for the first 12 seasons of his career. However, a three-game losing skid that was finally snapped last week with a win over the Jaguars has put a damper on that conversation, as well as the discussion about the Rams as possibly the best team in the NFL.
So, what happened? In LA’s first eight games, Matthew Stafford was sacked seven times and threw four interceptions. During the three-game slide, Stafford was sacked nine times and threw five interceptions. It’s hard to place the blame on the offensive line because according to ESPN Analytics, the Rams have been the second-best, pass-blocking unit in the league this season with a 68% pass-block win rate (Browns are first at 69%). Both starting offensive tackles, Andrew Whitworth and Rob Havenstein are tied for 3rd among all OTs with a 93% pass-block win rate, making the Rams the only team with two starting tackles in the Top 10 in that category. Bad news for this game, however, as Havenstein was placed on the COVID list on Sunday and will now miss this Monday night contest.
So, a struggling Stafford will now have to make do without his starting right tackle, putting even more pressure on the quarterback to find his early-season form. The sacks and interceptions have been a problem, but the most glaring issue has been his inability to connect on throws that he should be completing. For the season, Stafford has an xCOMP% +/- of minus-1.1.
Among QBs with at least 200 passing attempts, Stafford ranks eighth-worst in the NFL in that category according to Next Gen Stats. Much of that was driven by his poor performances starting in a win over Houston in Week 8 and then continuing during the three-game losing skid. Here are Stafford’s xCOMP% +/- for those four individual games: minus-6.7, minus-7.6, minus-3.9, and minus-8.7. Prior to Week 8, Stafford hadn’t posted back-to-back negative numbers in that category all season. It should be noted that he bounced back with a +5.1-mark last week, but it came against one of the worst teams in the league.
