Does Defense win Championships?

Jan 14, 2021
J.B. Long
Voice of the L.A. Rams

Rams head to Green Bay with NFC Champ berth at stake

Does defense really win championships?

Here comes the latest installment of putting that maxim to the test.

According to ESPN Stats and Info, this is the fifth matchup between the best scoring offense and the top scoring defense in the last 20 postseasons. The defense won three of the prior four meetings.

Alright, that bodes well for the Rams.

But according to NFL Research, this is the fourth playoff game in the last 50 seasons between the individual passing touchdown leader and the team that allowed the fewest passing touchdowns outright.

The quarterback's team has won all three of the prior games… and gone on to win the Super Bowl that postseason, too.

That would tend to favor presumptive MVP Aaron Rodgers.

Don't Pack it In

So of the three teams that have defeated the Packers this season, how did they pull it off?

Tampa Bay, Minnesota, and Indianapolis all rushed for at least 140 yards in the game and won the turnover battle.

In a way, those contests were less pronounced versions of what we saw from San Francisco in last year's NFC Championship game.

The Giving Tree

Another branch on the same coaching tree, Kyle Shanahan took it to Matt LaFleur and company last January, to the tune of 42 handoffs for 285 yards rushing and 37 points. Comparatively, Jimmy Garoppolo attempted just eight passes and completed six for San Francisco.

Would Sean McVay take it to that extreme on the Frozen Tundra?

Secondary to None

You can count on one thumb the reason he may want to, but we'll get to the Rams quarterback situation in a moment.

First, credit to the Packers, who may have the best secondary outside of Los Angeles.

Jaire Alexander was named second team All-Pro after leading the team with 13 passes defensed. Darnell Savage and Adrian Amos form one of the league's great safety tandems. Kevin King and Chandon Sullivan complete the picture.

And much like the Rams, Packers defensive coordinator Mike Pettine loves to leverage those defensive backs to his advantage, prioritizing the passing game, and leading the league in dime coverage usage.

Weather Report

Okay, to the issue we've all been wrangling with since the Saints beat the Bears, assigning L.A. to Green Bay.

It's going to be cold on Saturday; perhaps you've heard. Far from an Ice Bowl, but chilly. The coldest kickoff for the Rams since that fateful night in Chicago in 2018.

Even with a healthy throwing hand, Jared Goff has not fared well in two career games below freezing, completing just 47 percent of his throws without a touchdown, five interceptions, and eight sacks.

Conversely, Rodgers missed a career in cold storage (and game show host), apparently. According to The Athletic, he's undefeated in his last 10 thermometer games, with 26 scoring tosses against just one interception when the mercury dips below 32 degrees.

21 And Over

So let's assume for the moment that the Rams defense can and will do its part, as it has just about every week.

Rodgers has never lost a playoff game in which his defense held opponents to 21 or fewer points. He's 7-0.

That would indicate that the Rams offense has to find at least three touchdowns at Lambeau, unless the defense can continue its remarkable run of scoring.

Just for Kicks

How prolific has this Green Bay offense been?

They've scored touchdowns on nearly 40 percent of their drives, the highest rate since the undefeated 2007 New England Patriots. No team cashed in red zone opportunities at a higher clip than the Packers.

Consider that placekicker Mason Crosby, who became the first in franchise history to go an entire season without a missed field goal, only attempted 16 in 2020.

Matt Gay had the exact same number of field goal attempts in seven regular season games in Horns!

Punting for the Win

And while we're on the kicking game, let's highlight what might be the soft underbelly of the Packers: punting.

They ranked 31st in the NFL in yards per punt return, 30th in net punt average, allowed a league-high 17 yards per punt return, including punt return touchdowns by the Jaguars and Eagles. Oh, and they also had a punt blocked.

I'm not even going to mention the punter's name, because this isn't meant to call him out. Merely to point out that there's an opportunity here the Rams must capitalize on.

They run into a peer in the basement of the special teams rankings. With some momentum coming off one of their better outings on teams in the Wild Card win, can they carry that forward to Saturday?

If Johnny Hekker can flip fields, Gay continues to stripe kicks, and L.A. steals yardage in return and coverage, perhaps this won't feel like such an uphill climb to the NFC Championship.

[www.therams.com]