The RB Debate

First, full disclosure I am a huge proponent that the RB position does not matter. I have learned from experience and studying the game that RB production is a direct function of the offense. Scoring points in the NFL is function of explosive plays in the passing game.

I am fine with taking a rb at 104, don't like it but can live with it. But taking any of these RBs early will not improve our offense noticeably. Unless they can run WR routes and be effective in the passing game.

TLDR

Explosive pass plays create points. Avoiding 3rd downs by converting 1st downs on first or second down is critical to the success of the offense. Pressure on Goff is high and always has been--so limiting the amount of passes(or pressure opportunities by completing more explosive plays is the best way to fix the offense.

The difference in the running game on drives that score or do not is minimal and not worth valuable resources( money + premium draft picks). Premium draft picks and money should be used on players that contribute to producing a higher % of explosive pass plays.
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Explosive plays in the passing game--these are completed passes of 15+ yards. The stat below shows the % of explosive pass plays in drives that ended with points and those that did not end in points:

2019
Points-- 24.9% (t-4th) Highest was Tennesse at 27.6% 82
No Points--8.2% (t-12th) Highest was TN and SanFran at 10.2% --I excluded end of half and end of game situations.
Diff--16.7

2018
Points--26.8% (Best) 102
No Points--10.3% (4th)
Diff--16.8

2017
Points--23.9% (5th) 69
No Points -14.5% (6th)
Diff-9.4

The big takeaway here is how dependent scoring is on having explosive pass plays. For the last two years, we had almost 17% more explosive pass plays on drives we scored on. That is very intuitive. Makes alot of sense.

Next, Pressure. Same as above with drives that score points or not. End of half and game excluded.

Pressure %
2019
Points- 28.3% 17th
No Points- 46.9% Worst 292

2018
Points- 21.3% 4th
No Points- 45.5% 28th 194

2017
Points- 26.3% 13th
No Points- 43.6% 26th 236

Pressure on Goff is a huge factor in drives not scoring points. Again, very intuitive. These numbers are all the same to me year-over-year. However the number that stands out is the one on the far right--this is number of passes attempted. We attempted almost 100 more passes on drives we did not score points on than in 2018.

Conversion % on 1+2nd down (First downs + TD / Attempts)

2019 27.6% 230
2018 32.8% 280
2017 25.0% 193

The key here is the difference in conversions between 19 and 18--minus 50. That means an additional 50 third downs faced or 3 more third downs per game.

Pressure % on 1+2nd down vs 3rd down

2019
1/2 down 30.7 3rd 51%

2018
1/2nd 26.8% 3rd 38.4%

2017
1/2nd 31.3% 3rd 38.2%

3rd down sucks. Notice the 3rd down pressure rate was 13% higher last year. That's a problem.


Now, what does the rushing data tell us--on drives we score on we average between 1-2 yards more per carry. That's good. And in my opinion, not the reason the offense struggled. Yes, a better running game is helpful but this is not a problem area I want to devote valuable resources to improve. The gain per resource is way too low.

Rushing YPA

2019
Points 4.4
No Points 3.2

2018
Points 5.8
No Points 3.7

2017
Points 5.1
No Points 3.5