If Rams-Bears comes down to the 4th quarter, one team has a clear edge
Cameron DaSilva
[
theramswire.usatoday.com]
The Chicago Bears have surprised a lot of people this season by going 8-4 through 12 games. Mitchell Trubisky and the offense have taken a big step forward under Matt Nagy, while the defense – in part thanks to the arrival of Khalil Mack – has been one of the best units in all of football.
They’re far from a perfect team, though. they’re averaging just 4.1 yards per carry, which is 27th in the NFL, and despite being fifth in points scored, they’re 20th in yards. That’s largely because the defense has scored six touchdowns on its own, which has driven up the Bears’ point total.
Three of those defensive touchdowns have come in the fourth quarter, which has covered up some of the Bears’ struggles in the final frame. Sure, they rank 10th in fourth-quarter points per game (7.9), but if you subtract the 21 points scored by the defense, they’d be averaging about 6.2 fourth-quarter points per game – tied for 20th in the NFL. Three of their 10 fourth-quarter touchdowns have been on defense.
Put simply, the Bears offense has been relatively stagnant in the final 15 minutes. According to Inside Edge, they average just 80.2 yards from scrimmage per game in the fourth quarter, which is the second-lowest in the NFL, ahead of only the Redskins.
Trubisky’s 52 passing yards per game in the fourth quarter put him last in the entire league among qualified quarterbacks. Granted, some of that has to do with the Bears holding the lead in a lot of games, but his 91.5 passer rating (20th in NFL), four touchdowns and two interceptions in the fourth quarter this season leave plenty to be desired.
It’s not just the offense that’s been bad, either. The Bears have given up 133 yards per game in the fourth quarter this season, which is the second-worst mark in football, ahead of only the Chiefs. And if you think they’re giving up yards but not points, think again.
Opponents are scoring 9.3 fourth-quarter points per game against the Bears – 29th in the NFL with only the Raiders, Falcons and Giants ranking lower. Teams have the ball 54.55 percent of the time in the fourth quarter against the Bears, too, which is the sixth-highest average in the league.
Those are admittedly a lot of numbers to get through, but here are a few more that show just how great the Rams have been in the final 15 minutes of each game. They’re seventh in fourth-quarter time of possession (53.38 percent), eighth in fourth-quarter points per game (8.1) and teams are only averaging 5.6 points per game in the last frame – eighth-best in the league.
Jared Goff has just one turnover on 111 fourth-quarter plays – a lost fumble – which is the second-lowest turnover rate of any quarterback (0.9 percent). Only Aaron Rodgers is better.
If this game comes down to the wire as many expect it to, the Rams have the clear edge in the fourth quarter. That could be the difference between winning or losing by one possession.
