Peter King on the Inexact Science of Drafting

Please Manage Draft Emotions Accordingly

Peter King

[mmqb.si.com]


The 17 drafts of this century prove one thing: Drafting in the NFL is the most inexact of sciences. Teams spend untold millions to shape draft boards, and then JaMarcus Russell happens. Jason Smith happens. Dion Jordan happens. And, on the other side, Tom Brady happens.

So don’t say we didn’t warn you. Have a sane Thursday, Friday and Saturday, and remember: Jimmy Johnson, borderline savantish in the draft room, centered his draft philosophy around acquiring as many picks as he could. “Because I knew it gave me a chance for a better batting average,” he said. “We all screw up in the draft.”

Examples of that, year by year, in this century:

2000: The Niners, in need of a quarterback of the future, pick Gio Carmazzi of Hofstra 65th overall. The Patriot take Tom Brady 199th.

2001: Picks 8-9-10: David Terrell, Koren Robinson, Jamal Reynolds. Combined Pro Bowls: 1. Picks 30-31-32: Reggie Wayne, Todd Heap, Drew Brees. Combined Pro Bowls: 18.

2002: I’ll never forget being in the Cowboys draft room an hour before the draft started. Phone rings. Jerry Jones answers. Detroit GM Matt Millen on the line. Wants an offer, any offer, for the third pick in the draft. Not enthusiastic about Joey Harrington, from the sound of the phone call. Jones doesn’t want the pick, nor the quarterback. Harrington goes third, to Detroit. Bad idea. Oh, and my favorite player not selected in the 261-player draft: James Harrison.

2003: Titans draft cornerback Andre Woolfolk in the first round. Chargers draft cornerback Sammy Davis in the first round. Asante Samuel and Ike Taylor, cornerbacks, go late in the fourth.

2004: The Raiders, with the second overall choice, pick Iowa tackle Robert Gallery, bypassing Larry Fitzgerald, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger and Vince Wilfork.

2005: Drafted ahead of Aaron Rodgers—Troy Williamson, Travis Johnson, Erasmus James, Matt Jones, Fabian Washington.

2006: Drafted between picks 118 and 135: Stephen Gostkowski, Brandon Marshall (the receiver), Domata Peko, Elvis Dumervil, Kyle Williams (the defensive tackle), Rob Ninkovich.

2007: Fixated on JaMarcus Russell for months because of his big arm, Al Davis drafts him with the first overall pick. Russell plays three awful seasons with the Raiders and never is signed by another team despite once offering to play a season for free. That, my friends, is the biggest draft bust in NFL history.

2008: Undrafted: Danny Amendola, Wesley Woodyard, Jerell Freeman, Mike Tolbert, Danny Woodhead, Marcel Reese.

2009: The Rams make tackle Jason Smith the second pick in the draft. He lasts 26 starts. He is out of the league in five years.

2010: Wait! A competent drafting year! First seven picks: Sam Bradford, Ndamukong Suh, Gerald McCoy, Trent Williams, Eric Berry, Russell Okung, Joe Haden … Wait! An incompetence factoid! Antonio Brown is the 22nd wide receiver selected.

2011: Cautionary Tale Alert: Jake Locker 8, Blaine Gabbert 10, Christian Ponder 12.

2012: Be Careful What You Wish For Alert: Robert Griffin III 2, Kirk Cousins 102.

2013: Hard to imagine a less impactful top 12 in history than Eric Fisher, Luke Joeckel, Dion Jordan, Lane Johnson, Ziggy Ansah, Barkevious Mingo, Jonathan Cooper, Tavon Austin, Dee Milliner, Chance Warmack, D.J. Fluker, and D.J. Hayden. By “less impactful,” I mean, “really stinks.”

2014: The Rams make tackle Greg Robinson the second pick in the draft. By Week 11 of the 2016 season, he is a healthy inactive for the Rams. This is year four. Robinson will compete for a starting job in camp. He may be on the Jason Smith track.

2015: Great example of the fairly new draft credo of you-can-get-impactful-picks-ways-down-the-line: David Johnson 86th overall, Jay Ajayi 149th.

2016: Great example of keeping your draft-day emotions in check: Cowboys are desperate for Paxton Lynch in round one, late, and try to trade for him; fail. Cowboys are desperate for Connor Cook atop the fourth round; fail. Cowboys put on a happy face when picking Dak Prescott 135th.