Josh Norris: Top 150 Draft Board

Josh Norris: Top 150 Draft Board

Norris Finished 4th in the 2014 Big Board Standings

Sunday, April 23, 2017

[www.rotoworld.com]

I took my time this year. I won’t bore you with the details as to why, but I appreciate your patience. Plus, this has allowed me to not stick to horrible opinions from the fall and instead insert a fresh perspective from the fluid draft process. Also, the age is for week one of the 2017 season.



These are obviously not full evaluations. These snapshots are mostly positive, and that is the goal: to identify where a prospect succeeds and where he can help his future team.



1. EDGE Myles Garrett, Texas A&M (Age: 21)



Where He Wins: A unique, almost rare, mover. Difficult for offensive tackles to win from behind, since Garrett creates separation and sustains it. Escapes target area with shoulders and hips. Cannot leave him one on one versus a tight end or running back. Closing speed to finish is outstanding.



Forecast: Locked in with the top pick. Plays a premier position.



2. EDGE/DL Solomon Thomas, Stanford (Age: 21)



Where He Wins: Outstanding combination of size and speed. Attempts to attack the edges/shoulders. Can be an asset looping or twisting. Will spin to release once at pocket depth. Arm over swim used as inside move.



Forecast: The big questions is if he can be a full time outside pass rusher, or if his pass rushing success will come from the interior. Best alignment might be 4i.



3. FS Malik Hooker, Ohio State (Age: 21)



Where He Wins: So much range. Best in a cover 1 or cover 3 system, where he can work the middle of the field. Will extend or elevate at the catch point to make a play on the ball. Lethal with the ball in his hands post interception.



Forecast: I’ve seen many question his tackling. Plenty of examples of strong tackling, so I guess consistency is the only hold up? Will his talents be fully used in a split safety scheme?



4. TE O.J. Howard, Alabama (Age: 22)



Where He Wins: Straight line speed to sustain separation to pick up yards after the catch. Inline or edge blocker. Absolutely can be moved around. Will leave his feet for the football. Balance on contact. Will threaten the seam, intermediate and deeper portions of the field.



Forecast: Everything a team wants to see is on tape, which is tough to find at TE. Tight Ends rarely produce at a high level early in their careers, which is worth bringing up with Howard as a top 10 pick.



Pro Comparison: Greg Olsen



5. WR Corey Davis, WMU (Age: 22)



Where He Wins: A 6-foot-3 receiver who can dominate in the small game: creating separation, sustaining it and picking up yards after the catch. Has run practically every route from the outside and the slot, both sides of the field. Big frame allows him to naturally win contested in some opportunities. Aggressive for a receiver after the catch and on final contact.



Forecast: The premiere receiver in this class and just turned 22 years old. Only question is if he can be a focal point of a passing game. Minor ankle surgery has limited his draft process.



6. T Garett Bolles, Utah (Age: 25)



Where He Wins: Athletic left tackle with a finishers mentality. Right now he is better as a run blocker than in pass pro. Movement to pull or work to the second level. Natural strength is there, likely will improve with NFL conditioning.



Forecast: One year starter, but really even less than that. Rotated in game one, only played half of game two. Settled in after that. Tackles get paid and go off the board early. Bolles will be 25 years old as a rookie.



Pro Comparison: David Bakhtiari



7. LB Reuben Foster, Alabama (Age: 23)



Where He Wins: An absolute missile at the second level. Closes on ball carriers when given a lane or meets them quickly on the edge. Finishes with aggression. Outstanding special teamer. Not out of place in coverage.



Forecast: Combine incident might cloud things. Likely the first off-ball linebacker off the board, but will face competition from Haason Reddick due to extra pass rushing possibilities.



8. DL Malik McDowell, Michigan State (Age: 21)



Where He Wins: An incredibly fluid athlete for his size. Plenty of winning snaps from 1-tech, 3-tech and on the outside. Balance and hip flexibility allowing with push and pull to disengage and bend from the outside or the interior. Slippery at his size. Natural anchor is evident, can take on doubles.



Forecast: Who knows. There’s plenty of talk that McDowell was not loved by the Michigan State program, and his season was shut down early. Likely a second or third round pick.



9. EDGE/DL Jon Allen, Alabama (Age: 22)



Where He Wins: Hand use to create space. High motor. Snaps winning from the outside and inside. Backfield vision to shed with good timing on runs near his gap at the line of scrimmage. Can win early or late off the line.



Forecast: Question if he will stay on the edge and offer pass rushing ability outside. Overall, his biggest impact might come from the interior… which is difficult at 286 pounds.



10. OL Forrest Lamp, WKU (Age: N/A)



Where He Wins: Athleticism plus positioning plus placement.



Forecast: I’d give Lamp a shot at left tackle, and if it doesn’t workout move him inside. It seems the NFL is set on making him a guard or center, and likely the first of that group off the board.



11. RB Christian McCaffrey, Stanford (Age: 21)



Where He Wins: Patience and vision between the tackles. Anticipates defenders’ angles so well. Can run behind pulling blockers, run on the edge or be used as a receiver in any area. Kick returner.



Forecast: The NFL seemingly questions if he can be a primary running back. I don’t, as it did it for two seasons. Possible first running back off the board.



12. CB Gareon Conley, Ohio State (Age: 22)



Where He Wins: Outside and inside, which is a major advantage. So good at finding the football when in phase. Physical in routes.



Forecast: Should be the second corner off the board, and his ability to play the slot will only help his evaluation. Might end up being the top corner in this class in three years.



13. CB Marshon Lattimore, Ohio State (Age: 21)



Where He Wins: Quickness and patience. Keeps positioning to mirror in a variety of coverages. Will come up to tackle.



Forecast: His best is outstanding. However, one season of work and a history of hamstring issues might give some pause. Likely the first corner off the board, but Conley might ultimately be better.



14. TE David Njoku, Miami (Age: 21)



Where He Wins: So athletic. The best after catch threat in this class at tight end. Size and willingness to work inline, then a total matchup nightmare against linebackers or defensive backs. Will help a team in short, intermediate and potentially downfield areas.



Forecast: I doubt he makes it past the Steelers. Tight ends might be slow to impact, but Njoku is a plug and play starter with tremendous upside. The different ways personnel groupings can be used with him in the lineup is intriguing.



15. EDGE Charles Harris, Missouri (Age: 22)



Where He Wins: Primary then counter rusher. His primary move is explosion up the line and bend or a tight line to turn the corner. Once the offensive tackle compensates for that outside lane, he hits them with a spin move.



Forecast: Terrible Combine turned into an amazing pro day. Rest possibly a major factor.



16. RB Joe Mixon, Oklahoma (Age: 21)



Where He Wins: Patience and vision. So smooth to cut off blocks at the line of scrimmage or at the second level. Excellent receiver, both pre and post catch. Straight line speed to maximize big lanes.



Forecast: Missed the entire 2014 season due to suspension. Likely early second round pick despite video showing him hitting a female. Why? Decision will be up to head coach, GM and owner, and the two might sell the third on “we don’t want to play against him on Sundays.”



17. WR John Ross, Washington (Age: 22)



Where He Wins: So much speed. Threatens as a vertical threat, then creates separation off of it. One of the best redzone receivers in college football last year, as he consistently won in the tighter areas of the field. Kick returner.



Forecast: Two meniscus surgeries, and MCL injury, microfracture surgery and a shoulder operation… and he still ran a 4.22. Chance to be the first receiver off the board.



18. LB/EDGE Haason Reddick, Temple (Age: 22)



Where He Wins: Comfortable from practically any alignment. Bend and athleticism as a pass rusher. Closing speed and patience as an off-ball linebacker. Can stick with assignment in coverage.



Forecast: Real shot of being the first linebacker off the board, especially if a team prefers a bit of pass rushing upside.



19. TE Evan Engram, Ole Miss (Age: 23)



Where He Wins: Detached, slot or Joker, whatever you want to call him, Engram is a receiver who wins in the short and intermediate areas. Makes catches with contact and will pick up yards after the catch. Tremendous athlete.



Forecast: Likely a second round pick, but I could see late first. He’s a better blocker than given credit for.



Pro Comparison: Jordan Reed, but worse after the catch



20. S Jamal Adams, LSU (Age: 21)



Where He Wins: Dominates on edge runs, short throws and screen passes. Very sure tackler and is aggressive in space. Typically a split or strong safety.



Forecast: I know many love Adams. He could be a top 10 pick. But I question the value for his role. Will he help to that level in intermediate and downfield coverage?



21. RB Leonard Fournette, LSU



Where He Wins: Straight-line explosion. Maximizes lanes to create big plays. Highlights show punishing power on contact as well as excellent balance against defensive back tackles. Falls forward on final contact to pick up an extra two to four yards. Can pick up the difficult yards as well.



Forecast: Possible first running back off the board. Definite first round pick. I do wonder if NFL teams will factor in the drop off from under center versus shotgun runs. Running game will have to be centered around him.



22. EDGE Takk McKinley, UCLA (Age: 21)



Where He Wins: He will be successful if only because of his closing speed and motor. Difficult to slow down once gaining a momentum or positional advantage. Used to attack a number of alignments.



Forecast: We really don’t know much about Takk’s hand use, as the shoulder injury he played through the last two years really impacted his play.



23. WR Mike Williams, Clemson (Age: 22)



Where He Wins: 50-50 situations turn into 75-25 contested catches. If he has the positional advantage and the pass is on target, it is over. Converts some real circus catches, the game slows down for him on tipped passes. Creates separation on inside breaking routes. Wins vertically by playing big.



Forecast: Just like the other two, he has a real chance of being the first receiver off the board. Big program and clean season/process.



24. EDGE Derek Rivers, Youngstown State (Age: N/A)



Where He Wins: Fluid athlete. Takes a tight line around the outside with bend, then can work inside with a rip after an offensive tackle compensates. Hand use to create a balance advantage, then springs off his plant foot to close. Left defensive end. Solid against the run.



Forecast: Will be even more disruptive in the NFL when allowed more runway to work with. Likely a second round selection.



25. EDGE/LB Tyus Bowser, Houston (Age: 22)



Where He Wins: Athleticism from a variety of positions. Fluid pass rusher who mainly takes the outside line or loops inside. Asked to drop or cover man to man on a number of occasions, and trusted. Solid run defender off the ball.



Forecast: Likely a drop end for a team who uses five man fronts in one gap or two gap schemes. Has enough pass rush upside to take attention, but moves like a linebacker when in space.



Pro Comparison: Julian Peterson



26. CB Kevin King, Washington (Age: 22)



Where He Wins: Athleticism. Fantastic ball skills when in phase, elevates and floats at the catch point. Has the size, length and mobility to catch up when allowing separation.



Forecast: Burst onto the media scene at the Combine, but NFL teams likely already valued him highly. Needs to grow in patience and press technique, but has a chance to be the top corner in this class.



27. DL Chris Wormley, Michigan (Age: 23)



Where He Wins: Played on the edge and inside, showing positive snaps from both alignments. Has balance and straight-line pass rushing ability when lining up outside, creates separation with hands and hips to escape and win inside. Strong run defender with backfield vision.



Forecast: Wormley is an incredible athlete, he just waited until his pro day to show it. Three or four man fronts will value him. Plays like a professional.



Pro Comparison: Cam Heyward



28. CB Chidobe Awuzie, Colorado (Age: 22)



Where He Wins: Intelligent player from the outside and in the slot. An immediate impact in the slot for an NFL team, which is difficult to find in rookies. Successful blitzer off the edge and closes on screens or short passes in a hurry.



Forecast: Likely a slot corner immediately, which is viewed as a starter.



29. RB Dalvin Cook, FSU (Age: 22)



Where He Wins: Balance and big plays. Dalvin bounces off contact to create after initial defenders. Big plays after being the first defender or when alleys are created. Absolutely carried the offense in 2015. Dynamic receiver on flats and screens.



Forecast: Looking at the last 15 years, a running back with Dalvin’s athletic profile cannot be selected in the first round. He also had three shoulder operations since high school.



30. QB DeShone Kizer, Notre Dame (Age: 21)



Where He Wins: Comfortable in chaotic situations. He keeps his eyes up with subtle movements to work in closing pockets. Will look to hit every level of the field when forced off his initial spot. Mostly calm when forced to hold the ball longer than necessary. Has the athleticism and mobility to escape or pick up yards on the ground.



Forecast: Certainly not flawless. Will short arm passes along the sidelines and is a tick late on a number of throws. It is amazing what he did in terms of stepping up as a 19 year old.



31. QB Mitchell Trubisky, UNC (Age: 23)



Where He Wins: Comfortable when forced to hold the football longer than he expects to. Subtle and comfortable movements in the face of pressure. Successful throws in these situations in the short, intermediate and downfield areas. Athletic.



Forecast: One year of starting experience is difficult, since only 12-ish defenses prepared for his game.



32. QB Deshaun Watson, Clemson (Age: 22)



Where He Wins: Playmaker mentality. Never gives up on the play. Played well in the structure of Clemson’s offense. Set the table for Mike Williams to win contested. Great athlete and powerful.



Forecast: I have major concerns about Watson’s natural reaction to pressure, dropping his eyes and/or wanting to escape out of the back of the pocket. That playmaker mentality can get him into trouble.

~

33. EDGE Derek Barnett, Tennessee (Age: 21)



Where He Wins: Good bend for his size plus a tremendous motor. Barnett was incredibly productive and beat a number of collegiate tackles for years. Will make plays thanks to that motor when the quarterback is forced to hold the football longer than expect.



Forecast: I expect Barnett to be a top 10 pick, likely the third our fourth edge rusher off the board



34. EDGE Tim Williams, Alabama (Age: 23)



Where He Wins: Acted as a pass rushing specialist for a large portion of his collegiate career. Able to beat tackles in the first three steps and bend to turn the corner. A very solid run defender.



Forecast: Absolutely silent process, which is likely not a good thing. I could see third round.



35. LB Jarrad Davis, Florida (Age: 21)



Where He Wins: Athletic, aggressive and almost always in the right place. Obviously has the movement skills to succeed in coverage, but that isn’t the only trait needed to succeed in that area.



Forecast: Giants beat writer Jordan Raanan is certain Davis will be a first round pick, likely as the third off ball linebacker.



36. EDGE Carl Lawson, Auburn (Age: 22)



Where He Wins: A talented pass rusher for multiple seasons. Has won with strength and with an outside rip move. Reps of winning inside as well.



Forecast: Should be a late first or early second round picks. Above average athleticism and SEC play. Injuries did force him to miss time.



37. OL Taylor Moton, WMU (Age: 23)



Where He Wins: Right tackle in college, many believe he will move inside. Wins easily with positioning advantage, and still win without it thanks to functional strength. Has plus-movement skills as well.



Forecast: Possible late round one pick. Certainly off the board in round two. Likely rookie starter.



Player Comparison: Kelechi Osemele



38. EDGE T.J. Watt, Wisconsin (Age: 22)



Where He Wins: Stand up edge player with outstanding athleticism. Because of his size, teams with all different kinds of schemes will consider him for their edge spot. Fights his way to play behind of the line of scrimmage.



Forecast: Combination of athleticism and size at the position puts the odds in his favor, especially if he goes round one.



39. WR Taywan Taylor, WKU (Age: 22)



Where He Wins: Wins in the small game in terms of creating separation, sustaining it and winning after the catch. Attempts, and occasionally does, win in the big game despite being under 6-feet. Can play inside or outside. Great athlete.



Forecast: Second or third round. Some teams might see him as solely a slot.



40. WR Carlos Henderson, Louisiana Tech (Age: 22)



Where He Wins: The best player in this class after the catch. Puts one foot in the dirt and goes. Quickly. Used in plenty of manufactured touch situations. Shows understanding of working in soft areas in zones.



Forecast: I have heard zero indication of where Henderson could be drafted. Third or fourth round makes sense.



41. iOL Pat Elflein, Ohio State (Age: 23)



Where He Wins: Center and guard with positioning and power.



Forecast: Poor athlete, but could be the second true interior offensive lineman off the board.



42. CB Fabian Moreau, UCLA (Age: 23)



Where He Wins: Smooth. Mirrors and is patient to stick with receivers at every level and anticipates breaks.



Forecast: Pectoral injury could mean PUP list, which likely means second round.



43. WR Zay Jones, ECU (Age: 22)



Where He Wins: Dominated out of the slot in 2016. Incredible production and was fed targets. Played outside during Senior Bowl week and looked very solid. Then tested in the 94th percentile.



Forecast: Comfortable calling him a second round receiver. His old receivers coach is now with the Bills.



44. T Antonio Garcia, Troy (Age: 23)



Where He Wins: Watch his game versus Clemson. If Garcia hits his punch, it is over. Left tackle feet, which are tough to find. Finisher’s mentality.



Forecast: Tested like a slightly below average athlete. Senior Bowl was average. But a team might view him as a left tackle starter early in his career.



45. T Cam Robinson, Alabama (Age: 21)



Where He Wins: A power left tackle, especially when reaching the second level or blocking in space.



Forecast: A jump to Mayock’s No. 1 tackle is meaningful after talking with NFL folks during the pro day process. Some might view him as an interior player.



46. T Ryan Ramczyk, Wisconsin (Age: N/A)



Where He Wins: Plays like Justin Pugh, in the grasp and close to his body.



Forecast: One year starter and hip injury might lead to second round despite value of the position.



47. EDGE Jordan Willis, Kansas State (Age: 22)



Where He Wins: Tested like a rare athlete. Likely best from a wider alignment to convert explosion to power and finish with closing speed.



Forecast: Has enough first round tools for a team to spend a 20-40 pick on him.



48. WR Chris Godwin, Penn State (Age: 21)



Where He Wins: The best contested catch receiver Matt Harmon charted over the last two years. Makes a ton of plays along the sideline. Tested in the 89th percentile.



Forecast: Already has one area where he dominates, plus posted perhaps the best receiver performance in this class in his game against USC. Second round.



49. CB Tre’Davious White, LSU (Age: 22)



Where He Wins: Physical, aggressive and frequently glued to his opposition at all points in routes. Likely viewed as an outside receiver.



Forecast: Linked with a number of teams in round one.



50. QB Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech (Age: 22)



Where He Wins: Can succeed inside of Texas tech’s offense but thrives outside of it, turning failed plays into big gains. Never quits on the play. Cannon arm outside and down the field. Can also play in rhythm.


Forecast: I don’t know how anyone is comfortable in their evaluation of Mahomes, both positive and negative. There is no comparison of success in the NFL. His style of handling pressure is not my type.




51. EDGE/DL Taco Charlton, Michigan 106. RB Elijah McGuire, Louisiana-Lafayette
52. S/Slot Jabrill Peppers, Michigan 107. S Rayshawn Jenkins, Miami
53. WR ArDarius Stewart, Alabama 108. DL Caleb Brantley, Florida
54. WR Josh Reynolds, Texas A&M 109. Slot CB Jourdan Lewis
55. TE Jake Butt, Michigan 110. S John Johnson, Boston College
56. RB Samaje Perine, Oklahoma 111. CB Ahkello Witherspoon, Colorado
57. DL Larry Ogunjobi, UNCC 112. WR Trent Taylor, Louisiana Tech
58. iOL Dan Feeney, Indiana 113. WR Amara Darboh, Michigan
59. S Justin Evans, Texas A&M 114. TE Jordan Leggett, Clemson
60. S Obi Melifonwu, UConn 115. WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, USC
61. S Xavier Woods, Louisiana Tech 116. RB Marlon Mack, USF
62. RB Alvin Kamara, Tennessee 117. RB Wayne Gallman, Clemson
63. LB/EDGE Vince Biegel, Wisconsin 118. EDGE Daeshon Hall, Texas A&M
64. LB Duke Riley, LSU 119. DB Lorenzo Jerome, Saint Francis
65. DL Jaleel Johnson, Iowa 120. EDGE Dawuane Smoot, Illinois
66. EDGE Tarell Basham, Ohio 121. WR Shelton Gibson, West Virginia
67. DL Dalvin Tomlinson, Alabama 122. DL Treyvon Hester, Toledo
68. QB Nathan Peterman, Pitt 123. RB Tarik Cohen, NC A&T
69. iOL Chase Roullier, Wyoming 124. EDGE Avery Moss, Youngstown State
70. OL Dion Dawkins, Temple 125. RB James Conner, Pitt
71. LB Zach Cunningham, Vanderbilt 126. EDGE Ifeadi Odenigbo, Northwestern
72. LB Jalen Reeves-Maybin, Tennessee 127. DL Charles Walker, Oklahoma
73. LB Raekwon McMillan, Ohio State 128. EDGE Ryan Anderson, Alabama
74. iOL Ethan Pocic, LSU 129. EDGE Joe Mathis, Washington
75. CB/S Quincy Wilson, Florida 130. CB Shaquill Griffin, UCF
76. CB Cordrea Tankersley, Clemson 131. T Aviante Collins, TCU
77. Slot WR Cooper Kupp, Eastern Washington 132. T Julie'n Davenport, Bucknell
78. RB/Slot WR Curtis Samuel, Ohio State 133. T Jylan Ware, Alabama State
79. TE/WR Bucky Hodges, Virginia Tech 134. LB Marquel Lee, Wake Forest
80. TE George Kittle, Iowa 135. LB Kenneth Olugbode, Colorado
81. CB Rasul Douglas, West Virginia 136. LB James Onwualu, Notre Dame
82. S/Slot CB Budda Baker, Washington 137. EDGE/LB Keion Adams, Western Michigan
83. iOL Nico Siragusa, San Diego State 138. S/Slot Rudy Ford, Auburn
84. LB Blair Brown, Ohio 139. CB Jalen Myrick, Minnesota
85. iOL Isaac Asiata, Utah 140. T Brad Seaton, Villanova
86. RB D'Onta Foreman, Texas 141. WR Mack Hollins, UNC
87. TE Adam Shaheen, Ashland 142. WR Isaiah Ford, Virginia Tech
88. TE Gerald Everett, South Alabama 143, WR Josh Malone, Tennessee
89. S Marcus Williams, Utah 144. EDGE Samson Ebukam, Eastern Washington
90. S Marcus Maye, Florida 145. CB Jeremy Cutrer, Middle Tenn State
91. CB Marlon Humphrey, Alabama 146. TE Michael Roberts, Toledo
92. WR Ryan Switzer, UNC 146. DL Grover Stewart, Albany State
93. OL Will Holden, Vanderbilt 148. TE Cole Hikutini, Louisville
94. CB Cam Sutton, Tennessee 149. OL Dorian Johnson, Pitt
95. CB/S Desmond King, Iowa 150. LB Kendell Beckwith, LSU
96. CB Adoree Jackson, USC 151. LB Anthony Walker, Northwestern
97. CB Teez Tabor, Florida 152. Slot CB William Likely, Maryland
98. EDGE Trey Hendrickson, FAU 153. DL Roderick Henderson, Alabama State
99. EDGE/DL Tanoh Kpassagnon, Villanova 154. WR DeAngelo Yancey, Purdue
100. RB Kareem Hunt, Toledo 155. WR Chad Williams, Grambling
101. WR Chad Hansen, Cal 156. RB Joe Yearby, Miami
102. S Eddie Jackson, Alabama 157. WR Noah Brown, Ohio State
103. RB Jamaal Williams, BYU 158. LB Dylan Cole, Montana State
104. CB Damontae Kazee, San Diego State 159. WR Robert Davis, Georgia State
105. TE Eric Saubert, Drake 160. WR Ishmael Zamora, Baylor

Josh Norris is an NFL Draft Analyst for Rotoworld and contributed to the Rams scouting department during training camp of 2010 and the 2011 NFL Draft. He can be found on Twitter .
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