Re: Coronavirus: ‘Flatten the curve’ has become ‘Find the cure’. (Article).

The article scoffs at the first line of the article: The mayor of Los Angeles has said that his city will "never be completely open until we have a cure" for the coronavirus.

I have to say that I completely agree with the mayor's statement. But that doesn't mean we can't have a better situation than we have now. I believe there is a middle ground and plenty of room for improvement without being 'completely open'.

Again, I will use New York State as an example to explain why, since it appears the we have indeed flattening the curve.

New York's reopening plan consists of 4 phases as outlined by the CDC.

Phase 1: includes manufacturing, construction, wholesale businesses, and curb side retail (which can be indoor counter service where curb side is not practical).

Phase 2: includes storefront retailers and businesses in the professional services, finance and insurance, administrative support, and real-estate and rental-leasing industries

Phase 3: includes restaurants and other food-service businesses for dine-in service, as well as hotels — which are already considered essential businesses and are allowed to serve overnight guests, but this phase will likely mean they will be able to reopen their dine-in restaurants, spas, and gyms.

Phase 4: includes schools, and arts, entertainment, and recreation businesses (e.g., live theaters, movie theaters, and other entertainment venues)

The State is divided into 10 regions: 7 of the regions are in Phase 1, the other three have 1 or 2 of the CDC's reopening metrics to meet and all seem within a week of reaching them.

Once a region goes 2 weeks in Phase 1 without pushing the rate of transmission above 1.1 then they go to Phase 2. If they keep the rate of transmission below 1.1 for another 2 weeks then they go to Phase 3. It is worth noting that the goal thru all of this is to prevent an endemic, not to eliminate COVID.

There are 7 Regions that are likely to start Phase 3 in less than a month. That covers about 90% of the state by area and about 60% of the state by population. And it looks like the other 3 Regions aren't that far behind.

Guidelines for Phase 4 are still being worked on and are dependent among other things on what actually happens in the first 3 phases and what else is learned about the virus in the mean time.

So to finally get to my point ... when New York is 'reopened' I think it will look like this: testing in certain businesses, keeping employees 6 feet apart where possible, wearing masks at work, social distancing among customers where possible (e.g., tables in restaurants 6 feet apart, reduced capacities in movie theaters, pro sports in empty stadiums at first and eventually with reduced crowds). And I suspect NY will stay that way until there is either an effective way to treat people who catch COVID (antibody therapy?) or an effective way to keep people from catching it in the first place (vaccine?).

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AlbaNY_Ram