Where have all the QBs gone?

One thing the Rams did get right about last year's draft: looking ahead, 2017 was going to be the year that there are no 1st round-worthy QBs available. At least that's the opinion of some pretty good draft analysts. Rather these guys are great athletes, first, and QBs second.

Looking at what has been happening in the QB world, it is becoming obvious for reasons this board has discussed that the colleges are not putting out Pro ready QBs because they are looking for different kinds of QBs to run different kinds of offenses than what the NFL is looking for. So the unofficial NFL Farm System for QBs has dried up.

But the question is: what to do about it?

To me, there are two basic choices: 1) understand that except for the rare, unexpected find (Wilson, Prescott) the NFL is going to have to look more than ever at projecting a player's attributes to the NFL, and then have different expectations plus a system in place to develop those abilities that used to be more advanced in college QBs before they came out. 2) Change NFL offensive philosophy and systems to look more like the read-option or Air Raid styles as used in colleges today so that the new QBs can step right into familiar systems.

My belief is that option 2 is not viable. Part of the reason option 2 works in colleges is because the defensive players don't have the range and abilities that NFL defenses have. The speed, size and skill of NFL players negates the advantages that college offenses can generate against college defenses. Besides, a college hopes to get a couple of good years from their starting read-option QB. The NFL looks much more long range than that. But we see what happens to running QBs in the NFL.

So since option 1 is the only viable option, then it means that teams are going to have to look at all college QBs as development projects and generally NEVER as first year starters. And the NFL and CBA are going to have to recognize this reality so as to give QBs a special set of rules regarding how much time in the off season the QB and NFL staff can work together. The idea that a QB and his HC or OC or QB coaches can't connect for weeks and months on end is just plain counter-productive for all involved. It hinders the QBs development and thus his team's offense.

But I also think that means that the QB coach (and other offensive coaches) need to approach the issue as a development issue and look at it more like college coaches do; it is teaching, simplifying, and then measured, steady development; and much patience. And, it is going to add a year or more to the former NFL process of when a potentially good college QB can start and be effective. Goff, for instance, should never have started a game last year. He simply wasn't ready. Fortunately, the Rams were lucky and he wasn't injured and he is mentally tough so it doesn't appear to have harmed his confidence or psyche. But did those 7 starts actually help his development? I doubt that if it did, it did very much good.

I think this is especially so with pocket passers. Mobile QBs who can extend plays and first downs with their athleticism and legs (like they did in college) can "appear" to do better in their first year or two because of their legs (Kap, RG3, Akili Smith, etc). Pure pocket passers don't have that option and so must hone their passing skills and that takes longer. No highlight reel plays for them because when you take Wentz, for example, who had a much better rookie year than Goff, his highlights are him scrambling and making plays with his legs. That can't, won't, last.

So choosing a college QB is more of a crap shoot than ever unless you're fortunate enough to be able to get an exceptional kid from a Pro style system, of which there exists precious few any more.

So as regards Goff and the Rams, while everyone pretty much agrees that Goff has all the physical and (probably) the mental skills to play the NFL game at a high level, he doesn't have the knowledge yet. And that is because of the Air Raid college system he played in and the ridiculously horrible (lack of) coaching he received last year and an offense that was like an Albatross around his neck.

If the Rams will approach Goff as a development project; build the offense around what he can do at the moment, and not ask him to do what he has not yet developed far enough to do; and be patient and realize that just because they chose him 1st overall it doesn't mean he's not a development project. Don't compare him to a Jameis Winston who played his college career in a Pro style offense, setting coverages, reading D's, sitting under center on many plays. It simply isn't apples to apples.

I still think Goff looked less able than he would have on almost any other team because of Fisher and his Kindergarten Kops offense and coaches.
On the surface, it sure looks like McVay understands what has to be done and how to go about it. We'll see.