FootballOutsiders Week 5 DVOA Ratings

(Rams drop form 12th to 17th this week)

We have a new No. 1 team in the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings this week. The San Francisco 49ers had the best single-game performance of the season so far against Cleveland on Monday night (100.9% DVOA), and that catapults them into the top spot past the New England Patriots even though both the 49ers and Patriots see their actual ratings move up from a week ago.

Last week, I was writing about the Patriots and where their first four games stood among the hottest starts of the DVOA era, since 1986. Now we have to talk about the 49ers and where their first four games stand among the hottest starts of the DVOA era. The answer is: even higher.

Yes, the 2019 49ers now have the sixth-highest DVOA ever measured through four games. The Patriots now rank 13th... but they rank fifth all-time in best total DVOA ever measured through five games. And that list is even more impressive than the list of the best DVOA through four games, with pretty much every team on the list at least making it to the conference championship game. Whether or not the 49ers can make it onto the second list depends on how they play against the Rams this week. Most of the teams that were great through four games dropped a bit after their fifth game.

Both the 49ers and the Patriots are being driven by their defenses. The Patriots are still the best defense in DVOA history, with a slightly bigger lead on the rest of history than they had a week ago. The Patriots' defensive rating got a little worse this week as opponent adjustments got stronger, but the ratings for the other great defenses in dropped even more. Meanwhile, the 49ers rank fourth among defenses through four games.