Can the Rams afford Von Miller long term?

Can the Rams afford Von Miller long term?

[theramswire.usatoday.com]

Steve Rebeiro


The Los Angeles Rams shook up the NFL landscape once again on Monday afternoon when they acquired future Hall of Famer Von Miller from the Denver Broncos.

It was another “all in” move from Les Snead and Sean McVay, who are no strangers to trading draft capital for proven talent. The team hasn’t made a first-round pick since 2016, sending the majority of those picks out the door for players such as Jalen Ramsey and Matthew Stafford.

Miller is a more unique situation than those two, as he’s in the final year of his contract and will be a free agent in 2022. There’s a chance the Rams just dealt a second- and third-round pick, their two highest picks in the 2022 NFL draft, for half a season of Von Miller. They will try to re-sign him, per Albert Breer, but nothing is certain.

Will the Rams be able to bring back Miller following the 2021 season, and what happens if they don’t? Let’s take a dive into the future implications of this trade.

Can the Rams afford Miller in 2022?


(Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)
As usual, the Rams are strapped for cap space in 2022. According to Over The Cap, the Rams will have about $6 million in cap space to play with. The good news for them is that the majority of their key contributors remain under contract. They also won’t have to worry about paying draft picks, as they barely have any.

The bad news for the Rams is that $6 million is not much to offer any pending free agents. But if we’ve learned one thing during Les Snead’s tenure, it’s that the salary cap is just an imaginary number that won’t stop them from doing anything. Sure, they might not be able to afford Miller next season on paper, but they can’t even afford him today. The Broncos are paying over 90% of Miller’s salary for the remainder of the season.

The Rams can free up some cap space by restructuring a few of their big contracts. Six different Rams (Stafford, Ramsey, Donald, Woods, Kupp, Floyd) can free up to $8.8 million or more each should they have their contracts restructured. Though it’s unlikely the Rams would restructure the maximum amount for each player, expect them to update a few contracts to gain some cap space. Stafford in particular will be entering a contract year, so you can expect the Rams to get creative with cap space when they sign him to a likely extension.

As far as cut candidates go, the only likely option that would free up meaningful cap space is A’Shawn Robinson. Robinson is set to make $9.5 million in 2022. It’s highly unlikely that the Rams keep him around at that salary. A pre-June 1 cut would save the Rams $5.5 million in cap space, but the Rams would eat $4 million in dead cap. A pre-June 1 trade would save the Rams $6.5 million in cap space while eating $3 million in dead cap. Regardless of how they do it, the Rams will find a way to save a few million dollars with Robinson’s contract.

There’s also the case of Andrew Whitworth. He’s due to make $14.6 million next season. And while Whitworth is well worth that salary, he turns 40 in December and has indicated that he may retire at the end of the season. Whitworth retiring would save the Rams plenty of cap space as his entire $14.6 million would come off the books. Still, the Rams would rather he stick around, and some of that money would need to go to his replacement should he hang it up.

So the long answer is yes, the Rams can afford Von Miller with a few restructures or potential retirements. But he isn’t going to be cheap.

What's Von Miller worth?


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Miller’s value is tricky to pin down today. His last deal was a well-earned six-year, $114 million dollar contract that gave him an average of $19 million per year. Miller was coming off a Super Bowl MVP at the time of the signing and the contract made him the highest-paid defensive player in NFL history at the time.

If you were making the bear case against Miller receiving a big salary in the offseason, you’d say that he’s a 32-year-old player coming off a big injury that doesn’t have the same spark he had in his prime. You’d say that his best days are behind him, and that there won’t be a market for an old edge rusher like Miller.

You’d also be wrong. Miller is going to get paid as long as he produces for the Rams. And even he doesn’t, he’s still likely to fetch eight figures annually.

Last offseason, J.J. Watt was a free agent. He was in a similar situation. He’d been dealing with injuries recently and hasn’t been the impact player that he used to be. He still managed to sign a two-year, $28 million deal with the Cardinals. His injuries were worse than Miller’s, and his play had been worse than Miller’s when he came back from them. As far as Miller’s value goes, $14 million feels like the floor.

That being said, if Miller falls in love with Los Angeles, it’s realistic that he’d take a slight pay cut to stay here. He’s not going to take $5 million to play here, but the $10-12 million range doesn’t sound impossible if the money was guaranteed. The Rams will certainly do everything they can to sell him on sticking around.

What happens if Miller walks?


(Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)
Miller isn’t the only key contributor who the Rams will have to worry about next spring. The Rams will have six other key starters off the books after 2021: Darious Williams, Sebsatian Joseph-Day, Brian Allen, Austin Corbett, Dont’e Deayon and Matt Gay. Joseph Noteboom is also going to be a free agent, which could be significant should Whitworth decide to retire.

It seems likely the Rams will prioritize Miller over all the players listed above, but the math may simply not work out. There’s a chance that the Rams could sign Williams, Corbett and Allen for the same price combined as what Miller will command in 2022. The Rams will have plenty to think about here.

Should Miller walk, the Rams will receive a compensatory draft pick in 2023. However, because he has 10 accrued seasons, he can’t net the Rams more than a fifth-round pick. The Rams had to have factored this into the deal. Assuming they would get a fifth-rounder, the cost to acquire Miller for half a season seems worth it given the talent in the building — and given the Rams’ recent history of picking in the second round.

Keep an eye on Miller’s peformance — and happiness — in the coming weeks as he settles into his new home in Los Angeles. It should shed some light on whether or not he’ll be back with the Rams in 2022. Miller is expected to make his debut this Sunday against the Titans.