From 2009 through 2016 NOT ONE QB drafted in the 1st round is still with the team that drafted them.
My gosh.
What I've said for some years is that a team is far better off paying what it has to in draft picks and money to acquire a proven good.... or great.... NFL QB and quit rolling the dice. The odds are NOT in your favor..... not even close. And no matter the team, picking players can be equated to a batting average. But the QB position is unbelievably difficult to get right. Even a QBs first couple of years in the league aren't that good of an indicator going forward any more.
This is why the naysayers in the Stafford acquisition need to understand that this is one heck of a good, highly proven, NFL QB. Not saying he's Tom Brady. But he may not be far from an Aaron Rogers. Expensive? Oh yeah. But the Rams don't have to wonder what they have. 12 years of tape tells you.
My guess is that because the college game has turned to systems using the RPO running QB and away from the classic pocket passer QB, we're going to see even more epic fails and far more QB turnover that will have to do with an NFL running QB no longer able to play his game even at 5 or 6 years in the NFL. Their bodies get too beat up..... and it doesn't matter if you are as huge and dominating a figure as Cam Newton.
I think we're going to see a formula evolve that only rarely gives even a very good RPO type QB a second contract. Instead, a team will just draft a series of RPO types in the first round (say every 4th draft) and just replace the old one with the new one after 5 years rather than risk enormous salaries and hamstring the team on cap dollars that have only a small chance of the desired results. Some QB starved team will roll the dice, sign that QB, and get screwed.
