I did my own AI analysis and here's what it said:
0.3 to 0.8 Expected Points (EP) depending on starting field position, while a direct punt return touchdown immediately yields 6 to 7 points on the final score. Most individual routine returns alter win probability marginally, but rare explosive scores dramatically swing tight final scores.
Field Position and Expected PointsRoutine Gains: A typical 10-yard punt return lifts an offense's expected drive value by roughly 0.8 points (from ~0.47 points at their own 20-yard line up to ~1.29 points).Baseline Value: Normal returns without fumbles mostly average out near zero net change compared to a standard fair catch.Fumble Cost: Losing a fumble on a return heavily subtracts expected value, frequently costing a team 2 to 4 swing points in negative expected value or direct defensive scores.
Punt return touchdowns happen on only about 0.08% to 0.12% of all league punts (roughly 15 to 25 total per season across all 32 teams).
My conclusion: only 1% of punt returns in the entire NFL convert to a run back for a TD. A 10 yard PR is generally no better than a fair catch (of course, a return deep inside the 20 that adds 10 yards is more impactful). Fumbles cause more harm than a PR for a long gain does good for trying to win a game.
Bottom line: It is probably better to have a sure handed Punt Returner who gets league average returns and no fumbles, but who is also a good contributor to another position like WR, CB or RB.
I think the Rams will NOT keep a really good PR guy if that means that is his main job and is marginal in manning another position. The odds of that PR guy contributing to a win by helping to score points is very small. Much smaller than recovering an onside kick.
I think the Rams are probably looking at it analytically and saying sure handed is the #1 priorty, ability to run back reliably is #2. Ability to score by returning a Punt for a TD is off the charts low.
The Rams will be keeping 3 QBs on the active roster. That means it must subtract someplace else. Add to that the probability of keeping 5 TEs on the active roster. Therefore, I see only 3 RBs on the active roster and no more than 6 WRs. Maybe even only 5. The PR guy is going to come from one of those positions, and must be a good contributor to his position and not almost solely to returning punts. I think that puts Smith in jeopardy this year, as the Rams will favor WR ability over PR ability. And RB ability over PR ability.
