There is certainly a risk/reward consideration with any draft pick. Maybe Simpson doesn't work out. But maybe Lemon wouldn't have worked out, either. (I'm looking at Lemon because he was available at 13 and was the odds on favorite to be the Rams' pick in Vegas. He seemed to be a popular choice among this board's posters as well, probably the most often mocked guy in the draft.)
Here's an article that tracked draftees from 2006 thru 2021. [
www.pff.com] The data says that the Day 1 hit rate for QBs is 63.3% while the Day 1 hit rate for WRs is 56.9%. So there's the risk for each pick.
And what's the possible reward? Simpson might be a franchise QB, Lemon might be a WR1.
Statistically Simpson is less risk with a higher reward (the assumption being that a franchise QB is more valuable to an NFL tram than a WR1).
AlbaNY_Ram
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 07/05/2026 04:53PM by AlbaNY_Ram.
