If anyone other than McVay had drafted him that high, we'd be mocking the selection. But since it's the Rams, and since they clearly know what they're doing, opinion gets aligned behind that.
Not being able to beat out Bryce Young as a freshman... Understandable. Not beating him out as a sophomore... Ok fine. But not beating out Jalen Milroe is a bad look because he is a very limited QB who will need to earn first downs with his legs to move the chains in the NFL. Milroe is not going to ever consistently win from the pocket.
And then he gets his shot finally, in his final year, and looks like the best QB in college for the first half of the schedule. So on the positive side for us there is hope that he can be that QB for us. Unfortunately the second half of the schedule he came down to Earth a bit and looked like a backup on the biggest stage, the biggest games where defenses put some pressure on him. I will also note here that I think DeBoer is an outstanding QB developer, not to take anything away from Simpson but this is a coach who put a QB with a history of knee issues into round 1 (Penix).
Anyway Simpson is going to feel pressure in the NFL so he'll need to learn how to overcome that. But for myself until I see that, and until I see him string together consistent play over time as the QB1, I see him as a backup. The type of dude who is content to play second fiddle. Not the dude who sells his pool table because someone beat him on it (Elway). And statistically there is every reason to expect QB2 for him, certainly at the very least having that opinion is fair I would say.
Also and btw I don't look at Cam Newton as a "hit" as a top pick. He was certainly not a bust, but I don't think his career lived up to his draft selection. Expectation as a #1 overall pick is to be an elite starter over time. For myself at least. So the way I see it a small sample size is a significant problem, it induces a lot of risk statistically, and even though Simpson seems to be a great fit for McVay's system with his high floor I am going to focus on enjoying his development and crossing my fingers that we end up with an outlier.
