My 2 cents

Quote
alyoshamucci
Few reasons.

First, three year studs tend to fall on draft day because they aren't gaining "momentum" ... they're just so good that the "expected" is no longer "wow" ...
I actually think he is gaining momentum. Lots of chatter how he is either the top or 2 best player in the draft regardless of position. In December, it seemed like the Rams had a really good shot at him, now, not so much. I've seen him mocked as high as 2. That wasn't the case in December.

Second ... The teams drafting ahead of us have literal major needs in many places and picking up Downs might be seen as luxury, even moreso than J Love ...
Because ...
The smart play for teams that have so many holes are to take BPA. You start drafting for need and you end up reaching for an inferior player and thats how bad teams stay bad. Now, some of these GMs might be on the hot seat and taking a SAF won't save their job when they need a OT or a WR in the worst way, so they go that route.

Third ... Thienemann and McNeil-Warren are hot. I have seen drafts where Downs is not the first safety off the board, and one where 3 safeties go top 20.
I think McNeil-Warren is hot. Testing will give us an idea of how hot. I think Thienemann is luke warm. Neither of these guys are Downs.

Fourth ... testing googly eyes. McNeil Warren and Thienemann are both big, and are both going to jump out of the building from what I hear. Downs will be good, not great in testing. I may be wrong here, but I expect about a 4.48-4.52, and solid agility numbers with above average burst numbers but likely less than the other two I have in comparison. So Downs and Thienemann are both 6'-0" 205 lbs until they actually weigh in, McNeil Warren is 2" taller but a couple of lbs. lighter, so not exactly "bigger". I think all 3 run in the mid 4.4s to upper 4.4s. I'm not sure the other 2 can test well enough to erase the gap between them and Downs. Too many intangibles. That said, I'd be shocked if Downs does anything and waits for his pro day.

I would say that the most likely team besides us to target him would be Washington. That makes sense. But so do a lot of other players there.
Chiefs if Love is gone? Maybe but they help in plenty of places. I think the Giants at 5 is his ceiling, Washington makes a ton of sense at 7, the Chiefs at 9, the Bengals at 10 and the Cowboys at 12.

So ... in my eyes, Downs is maybe the best safety I've graded. He's battling Earl Thomas for the best. Derwin James was close as well. We have players on the back end ... but I don't feel like we've had a leader since Ramsey left.
My comparison for Downs is (obviously ceiling) is Eric Berry, both 6' 205 lbs coming out. Both average speed (mid 4.4s) but super high IQs, both locker room leaders, high character guys. Berry was drafted 5th overall I believe. So if you think Downs is Eric Berry, he will be gone long before pick 13.

And I don't think we've had as smart a player since maybe Aeneas Williams. Eric Waddle, super bowl run for 5 games?

I've watched him since his first games at Bama. Having him is like playing with 12 men. I'm pretty sure Saban was quoted as saying (in his last year there IIRC) he could play any position on D except DT, and any position on O except O line.

He has no injury history. He's probably the best player in the draft overall. Him or Love.

Anyway, just wanted to put that out there because the way I'm watching it fall ... he drops. If he blows up the combine this weekend then we don't have a shot. He could go at 2.

Anyone wanna add some thoughts here?