[www.espn.com]

5. Los Angeles Rams
Chance at No. 1 pick: 5.1%
Chance at top 10: 52.1%

Why they are here: You know that person in your fantasy league who goes entirely with the stars-and-scrubs roster? Yeah, that's Rams general manager Les Snead. Aside from defensive tackle Aaron Donald, the defense is largely a young, unproven and unheralded group. On offense, while Matthew Stafford says he feels good, it's hard not to have lingering health concerns for a 35-year-old QB who entered last season with an elbow injury and finished it on IR with a spinal cord contusion. -- Walder

How they outperform this projection: The Rams need to figure out how to score points this season, plain and simple. Their 307 points in 2022 were tied for the fewest in the NFL. If they can solve that problem, they'll likely compete for a spot in the standings beyond what would get them a top-10 pick. That starts with Stafford staying healthy. He played nine times last season, just the third time in his career he played single-digit games in a season. Stafford has the receivers (Cooper Kupp and Van Jefferson) and running back (Cam Akers) to put up points -- if he can stay on the field. -- Josh Weinfuss