Infectious Disease Experts Don’t Know How Bad The Coronavirus Is Going To Get, Either
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[fivethirtyeight.com]
On March 29 the US had over 120,000 cases. Two weeks prior, 15 of the 18 "experts" didn't even have 100,000 in their worst-case range and none of them had more than 75,000 as their best estimate.
These are "experts" and see how horribly wrong they are just two weeks out. There were over 120,000 cases in the US on March 29.
The consensus forecast generated by the individual responses indicates that we should expect roughly 19,000 reported cases by March 29, with an 80 percent chance of seeing between 10,500 and 81,500 cases.
On March 29 the US had over 120,000 cases. Two weeks prior, 15 of the 18 "experts" didn't even have 100,000 in their worst-case range and none of them had more than 75,000 as their best estimate.
These are "experts" and see how horribly wrong they are just two weeks out. There were over 120,000 cases in the US on March 29.
The consensus forecast generated by the individual responses indicates that we should expect roughly 19,000 reported cases by March 29, with an 80 percent chance of seeing between 10,500 and 81,500 cases.
