Re: And this one, which observes a 53% success rate for 1st rounders
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First Round Picks Only Have a 53% Success Rate And Other Troubling Draft Thoughts [theriotreport.com]
This article is from 2018; Here's how it defines 'success' for 1st round picks:
"First, we’ll need to define how we judge success, and for first round picks I have decided, again with a certain level of arbitrariness, that a good definition of a solid first round pick is somebody who averages an Approximate Value each year of 5 or more. AV is a valuation statistic from Pro Football Reference, it is far from perfect, but at this level gives a vague indication of player success, especially when we will be comparing players across different positions. Am AV of five represents a decent but unspectacular season for an NFL player, this is the value that Tyler Larsen and Jonathan Stewart received last season, and so for a first round pick to fail to live up to this level would likely be seen by most to be a bust; this isn’t a particularly high bar for them to reach."
"Of the 223 first round picks over the past seven years [2011 thru 2017], 120 have averaged an AV of 5 or more for their careers so far; that’s good for a 53% success rate."
AlbaNY_Ram
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 01/17/2020 12:03PM by AlbaNY_Ram.
This article is from 2018; Here's how it defines 'success' for 1st round picks:
"First, we’ll need to define how we judge success, and for first round picks I have decided, again with a certain level of arbitrariness, that a good definition of a solid first round pick is somebody who averages an Approximate Value each year of 5 or more. AV is a valuation statistic from Pro Football Reference, it is far from perfect, but at this level gives a vague indication of player success, especially when we will be comparing players across different positions. Am AV of five represents a decent but unspectacular season for an NFL player, this is the value that Tyler Larsen and Jonathan Stewart received last season, and so for a first round pick to fail to live up to this level would likely be seen by most to be a bust; this isn’t a particularly high bar for them to reach."
"Of the 223 first round picks over the past seven years [2011 thru 2017], 120 have averaged an AV of 5 or more for their careers so far; that’s good for a 53% success rate."
AlbaNY_Ram
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 01/17/2020 12:03PM by AlbaNY_Ram.
