Why the Rams are willing to trade so many first rounders

[ftw.usatoday.com]


The Los Angeles Rams think they have found a player in cornerback Jalen Ramsey who will have an impact on their defense like linebacker Khalil Mack did for the Chicago Bears. In fact, the Rams probably think Ramsey will have an even bigger impact than Mack. Los Angeles’ haul for Ramsey exceeded what the Bears gave for Mack.

The Rams got Ramsey, and sent a 2020 first-round pick, 2021 first-round pick and 2021 fourth-round pick to the Jacksonville Jaguars. As a result, the Rams are on pace to go FIVE years without making a selection in the first round. They haven’t picked in the first round since 2016 when they selected quarterback Jared Goff. And the Rams won’t pick in the first round until 2022. (At this pace, they’ll probably get rid of that pick, too.)

Assuming they don't trade back in, the Jalen Ramsey deal means the Rams will go five years (2017-21) without a first-round pick.

2017: to Tennessee for Jared Goff
2018: to New England for Brandin Cooks
2019: to Atlanta in trade down
2020-21: to Jacksonville for Jalen Ramsey

— Albert Breer (@AlbertBreer) October 15, 2019

First round picks are supposed to be one of the most valuable pieces in football, right? They provide NFL teams with a rent-controlled player, who should quickly contribute as a starter — right? So what are the Rams thinking as they continue to bail on key building blocks to add stars, who will consume enormous cap space?

1. They think they can win now — and in the coming years

It’s clear the Rams think they can win enough games to make sure the picks they sent to the Jaguars will fall in the 25 to 32 range, an area in the draft where players get increasingly risky, particularly with the number of redshirt sophomores declaring for the draft (a small sample size of film should make for a higher bust rate).

Los Angeles is coming off a Super Bowl appearance, and the franchise seems to have aspirations of winning it this year. The problem is that their division has two of the best teams in football: the San Francisco 49ers (5-0) and the Seattle Seahawks (5-1). And so the Rams (3-3) sit at third in their division in tremendous danger of missing the playoffs.

But that can change.


Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports

Their offensive line is playing poorly, which is trickling down to Goff (and he’s got some problems of his own) and running back Todd Gurley. So a cornerback isn’t going to solve those offensive issues. Ramsey’s assessment of Goff in 2018 — “average to above average” — is looking accurate, which is particularly scary because the Rams paid Goff an absurd sum (four years, $134 million) this offseason. But again, that can change.

It’s not like the Rams don’t have talent. The offensive line is playing poorly, but it features three of the same offensive linemen (including two of the same tackles) as they had in Super Bowl LIII. There are reasons to believe they can and will play better, even if their two new starters have been really bad.

Goff looks stunted in his development, which is hindering the offense’s ability to perform. But the losses don’t fall exclusively on him — he was actually clutch in a loss to the Seahawks. The Rams clearly believes he can reach a higher plane of play — otherwise they wouldn’t have given him $57 million guaranteed dollars in his new deal.

Los Angeles looks like a team that’s battling a Super Bowl hangover. The Rams seemed to be hoping that’s all it is, and that there’s not something structurally wrong with their organization.

2. They must think that First-Round draft picks are overvalued


Greg Robinson, the No. 2 overall pick in 2014, was a major bust for the Rams. Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

The Rams like the idea of having a star in-hand more than they like having two or three potential stars in the draft. Because while those first-round picks are paid significantly less than Ramsey, it’s extremely unlikely for even one of them to turn into Ramsey, who was the fifth-overall pick in 2016.

So long as the Rams are, indeed, picking late in the first round, there is some logic to getting one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL over a handful of 21-year-olds who may or may not turn into a starting caliber player. For every Lamar Jackson (32nd overall in 2018), there is a Hayden Hurst (25th overall in 2018). For every Ryan Ramczyk (32nd overall in 2017), there is a Taco Charlton (28th overall).

The Rams will have to pay Ramsey. They gave up a lot in draft assets to get him. But they know they’re getting one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL — he’s a player that can change a defense.

3. They must have tremendous faith in their scouting department


AP

Maybe they don’t believe in the “quality” of draft picks. Maybe they think the draft is all about quantity — and that the risks of a late first-round pick aren’t that much different than spots later in the draft.

If L.A. thinks the draft itself is too much of a crapshoot, then it may have to try a high volume of picks in the coming years — and in later rounds. The Rams have had success under general manager Les Snead. Here’s a look at some hits he’s had on non-first rounders: CB Janoris Jenkins (2nd round), CB Trumaine Johnson (3rd round), K Greg Zuerlein (6th round), S T.J. McDonald (3rd round), S Lamarcus Joyner (2nd round), OT Rob Havenstein (2nd round), TE Tyler Higbee (4th round), WR Cooper Kupp (3rd round), C Brian Allen (4th round), Joe Noteboom (3rd round).

The list goes on.

So Snead essentially expects his scouting department to turn up more players in the later rounds, like they’ve done in the past. Because if they don’t, the Rams will have major depth problems. Gurley, Goff, Brandin Cooks, Ramsey and Aaron Donald are set to consume a major portion of the team’s cap space. So the Rams will need to work carefully to find a supporting cast which fills out the middle and lower class of the roster.

Right now, the acquisition of Ramsey seems wild for a .500 team. But if the Rams somehow make the playoffs this year — and do the same next year — they can probably feel good about their decision to acquire him, particularly if he has a major hand in their successes.

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