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PFF: Projected win totals, division title probability and Super Bowl odds for NFC West
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| Registered: 14 years ago Posts: 13,921 Status: HOF Inductee |
The 2018 season presented some intriguing storylines for the NFC West. Would the Los Angeles Rams be able to avoid the regression that generally plagues second-year pop-up teams? Would the Seattle Seahawks curb their multiple-year descent and hold off the upstart San Francisco 49ers and make the playoffs in a stacked NFC? How would the Arizona Cardinals fare with a new head coach and quarterback?
Unfortunately for the Cardinals, they have to answer that last question again, but for the Rams and the Seahawks, you could not have asked for a better outcome in 2018. The Rams’ roster led the NFL in cumulative wins above replacement (WAR) a season ago, boasting a collection of talent that includes the league’s best player in Aaron Donald and a quarterback in Jared Goff that continues to improve each year. Seattle, while maddening to their fan base with their turn away from efficient play calling on offense and the loss of several players’ snaps of brilliance on defense, won 10 regular-season games on the back of Russell Wilson’s third-down heroics, returning to the playoffs for the first time since 2016. Jimmy Garopollo’s injury derailed the 49ers’ season, but Kyle Shanahan’s ability to generate value offensively from C.J. Beathard and Nick Mullens gives bay area fans hope for 2019.
As we do each offseason, we’ve simulated the 2019 season 10,000 times to get a distribution of outcomes that represents our predictions for each team. The simulations take into account scheduling factors (bye weeks, weather, etc.) as well as each team’s strength in each facet of the game of football. Team strengths are also simulated to mimic season-long improvement for good teams and decline for poor teams. For example, in a universe where the Buffalo Bills somehow get to 12 wins, it’s likely that our preseason rating of Josh Allen is lower than that of the player he becomes in that universe. Our model accounts for this possible trajectory as well as changes made between now and Week 1. Enjoy!
Pro Football Focus
Unfortunately for the Cardinals, they have to answer that last question again, but for the Rams and the Seahawks, you could not have asked for a better outcome in 2018. The Rams’ roster led the NFL in cumulative wins above replacement (WAR) a season ago, boasting a collection of talent that includes the league’s best player in Aaron Donald and a quarterback in Jared Goff that continues to improve each year. Seattle, while maddening to their fan base with their turn away from efficient play calling on offense and the loss of several players’ snaps of brilliance on defense, won 10 regular-season games on the back of Russell Wilson’s third-down heroics, returning to the playoffs for the first time since 2016. Jimmy Garopollo’s injury derailed the 49ers’ season, but Kyle Shanahan’s ability to generate value offensively from C.J. Beathard and Nick Mullens gives bay area fans hope for 2019.
As we do each offseason, we’ve simulated the 2019 season 10,000 times to get a distribution of outcomes that represents our predictions for each team. The simulations take into account scheduling factors (bye weeks, weather, etc.) as well as each team’s strength in each facet of the game of football. Team strengths are also simulated to mimic season-long improvement for good teams and decline for poor teams. For example, in a universe where the Buffalo Bills somehow get to 12 wins, it’s likely that our preseason rating of Josh Allen is lower than that of the player he becomes in that universe. Our model accounts for this possible trajectory as well as changes made between now and Week 1. Enjoy!
Pro Football Focus
| Subject | Author | Views | Posted |
|---|---|---|---|
 | LMU93 | 346 | July 17, 2019 04:04AM |
| BeachBoy | 142 | July 17, 2019 04:14PM |
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This web site is in no way affiliated with the NFL or the Los Angeles Rams.