As a fan I find myself getting psyched up about a lot of the guys the Rams pick, but I am keenly aware that my expectations are not in line with actual historical outcomes. Take the most recent draft as an example.
Rapp, taken near the end of round 2. ESPN says Rapp "... could quickly develop into a starting-caliber safety" ( [
www.espn.com]) and that is a pretty common review. Yet statistically a 2nd round DB has only a 46% chance of ever becoming a consistent starter. ( [
www.arrowheadpride.com] ). And my guess is the odds are lower for a DB picked 61st than a DB picked 33rd. So if Rapp never develops into a starter it wouldn't be a surprise based on league-wide results gathered from 2005 thru 2014. But I personally would still be disappointed in that outcome.
Henderson, round 3, won't start as long as Gurley is healthy. But if Gurley needs to take a game or two off I expect Henderson to get the call. Yet historically there is only a 16% chance that Henderson will ever develop into a consistent starter.
Long, also round 3 - 24% chance of developing into a consistent starter. Yet I see him starting in a year or 2.
Evans, round 3, and Edwards, round 5: 40% and 16% respectively, yet I expect at least one of them 2 start by 2021.
Gaines, round 4: only a 37% chance of becoming a consistent starter, yet he's talked about stepping into the NT spot as early as this year by some.
Scott and Allen, both 7th rounders: 3% and 2% chance, respectively. My expectations are low for these 2, but I'd love it if they can contribute ... and will be disappointed if they don't.
AlbaNY_Ram
