no that was provided

Quote
PHDram
Is that their is no generally no comparison against other nfl teams nor is there an agreed metric to measure the success of a draft pick making these conversation filled with subjectivity.

I made the same complaint myself years ago about no metric so I went out and made one for myself.

I picked some teams that had a reputation for drafting well, and I then picked 5 year portions of their draft history and did purely numerical breakdowns (no "grading," to me that's a separate step), counting hits and coming up with percentages. The trick was to go far enough back--3-4 years--so you could judge the outcomes. I found out that teams that drafted at a 50% hit rate were exceptional, 40% and into the 40s was good, and the 30s was around average.

I had several discussions on different board about that approach and those findings, leading to all sorts of questions. I stand by the battle-tested results....but if someone else doesn't like them and wants to do their own numbers, feel free. I don't have a copyright© and I didn't get the law passed which would have forced everyone to use my numbers only.

One of the key points is that a pure hit percentage is not a grade. With grades you start looking at quality. So for example Denver's superbowl NT in 2015, Sylvester Williams, counts as a hit. Played decently for 4 years on some good defenses then later faded. That's still a hit. BUT (duh) Aaron Donald gets a higher GRADE. Hit and grade are not the same.

You want hit percentages in the discussion because I keep finding people have unreal expectations for what counts as good drafting. BTW it is rare to find teams that don't miss on 1st and 2nd rounders now and then.

Sometimes what counts as a hit can be controversial. So is Greg Robinson a "hit"? He's the Browns starter at LOT and had a decent season last year. But then he underperformed for the Rams and was slow to develop and the new regime had no patience for him. Is that a hit or a miss? So the numbers alone by themselves are no simple solution, but they do help ground the conversation.

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Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/22/2019 07:01PM by zn.