Effect of having a top 5 paid QB on a team's chances of making the Conference Championship

(This is an offshoot of a sub-sub-thread in another message.)

Question: is a team with a top 5 paid QB more likely or less likely to make a Conference Championship than a team without one.

Criteria: Looking at the QBs with the 5 highest cap hits, 2nd contract or beyond, in each year 2014 thru 2018 ... how many of them made a Conference Championship game? (all cap hit info is from sporttrac) [www.spotrac.com]

Observations:

Of the 25 teams with QBs in the top 5 (5 per year over 5 years), 3 of them made a Conference Championship game . That's 12%.

Of the 135 teams that didn't have a QB in the top 5 (27 per year over 5 years), 17 of them made a Conference Championship game. That's 12.59%.

Conclusion: it doesn't matter at all if a team has a QB with a top 5 cap hit. With this sample size 12% and 12.59% are the same number.

The data:

2018: the QBs with the 5 highest cap hits: Jimmy Garropollo (SF), Matt Stafford (DET), Derek Carr (OAK), Joe Flacco (BAL), Andrew Luck (IND)

Championship games: LAR vs. NO, NE vs KC. These 5 QBs were 0-for-5

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2017: the QBs with the 5 highest cap hits: Joe Flacco (BAL), Carson Palmer (ARI), Kirk Cousins (WAS), Matt Ryan (ATL), Aaron Rodgers (G

Championship games: PHI vs. MIN, NE vs JAC. These 5 QBs were 0-for-5

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2016: the QBs with the 5 highest cap hits: Eli Manning (NYG), Ben Roethlisberger (PIT), Matt Ryan (ATL), Joe Flacco (BAL), Matt Stafford (DET)

Championship games: ATL vs GB, NE vs PIT. These 5 QBs were 2-for-5

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2015: the QBs with the 5 highest cap hits: Drew Brees (NO), Philip Rivers (SD), Matt Ryan (ATL), Aaron Rodgers (G, Matt Saffold (DET)

Championship games: CAR vs ARI, DEN vs NE. These 5 QBs were 0-for-5

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2014: the QBs with the 5 highest cap hits: Eli Manning (NYG), Ben Roethlisberger (PIT), Jay Cutler (CHI), Drew Brees (NO), Aaron Rodgers (G. ***Note that Sam Badford (LAR) had a bigger cap hit than Aaron Rodgers this year but was excluded from this study since he was on his first contract.***

Championship games: SEA vs GB, NE vs IND. These 5 QBs were 1-for-5

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AlbaNY_Ram