Rams 2019 free agency preview: Tag, re-sign or let Dante Fowler Jr. walk?
Cameron DaSilva2 hours ago
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theramswire.usatoday.com]
The Los Angeles Rams went into the 2018 season knowing they needed help at outside linebacker. They began the year with Samson Ebukam and Matt Longacre starting, but that tandem simply didn’t get the job done. So they went out and acquired Dante Fowler Jr. at the trade deadline, sending Jacksonville a third-rounder in 2019 and a fifth-round pick in 2020.
It was a risky move for a relatively unproven player in a contract year, and now here they are with a big decision to make. Will they let Fowler walk after putting up 3.5 sacks in 11 games with the Rams? Or do they sign him to an extension, making this trade more than just a rental?
The franchise tag is also on the table, though that’s the costliest short-term option. We lay out all the options in this preview, continuing our daily free agency series.
2018 stats: (LA and JAX) 15 games, 30 tackles, 4.0 sacks, 5 TFL, 6 QB hits, 2 FF, 2 FR
Pro Football Focus grade: 67.3 (No. 53 edge defender)
Analysis
Fowler was only a part-time player in Jacksonville, but with the Rams, he was playing just about every snap by the end of the year. He started six games and was far more impactful with Los Angeles than he was with the Jaguars. Does that mean his 2018 season was a success? Not necessarily.
He only had four sacks in 15 regular-season games, and 5.5 if you count the three additional playoff contests. So in 11 games with the Rams, he had 3.5 sacks. For a player on a defense with Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh, that’s obviously not a high number, but it doesn’t tell the whole story.
He made impactful plays in big moments, like a tone-setting hit on Ezekiel Elliott and getting to Drew Brees in the NFC championship to force an interception. He had four tackles for loss in those three postseason games, which is one more than Donald had.
It just remains to be seen if he can sustain success in the NFL for 16 games. He only has 16 career sacks in three seasons – excluding his missed 2015 campaign due to injury – and has just one year with more than four sacks. Paying a player like that north of $12 million for an extended period of time is a risky proposition.
Positional need: High
Arguably the biggest need for L.A. this offseason is at outside linebacker, and with the pass rush as a whole. If Fowler leaves, they’re looking at Samson Ebukam starting again and possibly Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, depending on what they do in the draft and free agency. For a team that got only eight sacks from its edge rushers, that’s not great news.
There will be options in free agency, but expecting to land a Day 1 starter at outside linebacker at No. 31 in the draft is somewhat unreasonable. That’s not to say it can’t happen, but there’s a reason the best pass rushers go high in the draft with not many rookies putting up double-digit sacks.
The Rams need help at this spot, and badly.
Prediction: Signs three-year, $27 million deal with Rams
There are three ways the Rams can go with Fowler. They can place the franchise tag on him and pay him around $15 million for 2019 alone. They did that with Lamarcus Joyner last year, overpaying him for one season to determine whether he’s worth a big-money extension. That turned out to be a great move because Joyner regressed, and had the Rams extended him, they’d probably be having buyer’s remorse.
Another option is signing Fowler to a multi-year deal. This is the ideal scenario, but it’s also the most difficult to make happen. Teams overpay free agent pass rushers and that could very well be the case with Fowler if he hits the open market. A team could easily offer him $11 million per year, putting him on par with Cameron Jordan – which is crazy to think about.
The last option – aside from a tag-and-trade, which won’t happen – is letting him walk. The Rams did this with Sammy Watkins after acquiring him in 2017, likely netting a third-round compensatory pick in the 2019 draft. If the Rams let Fowler sign elsewhere, they could be looking at another third- or fourth-round compensatory selection in 2020.
Ultimately, I think the Rams will get a deal done with Fowler, possibly before he gets to free agency. A deal around $9 million per year makes sense for both sides, which should fall somewhere between the deals Preston Brown and Shaquil Barrett get this year.
It wouldn’t be the least bit surprising to see Fowler leave after a half-year rental, especially given the pass rushers available in free agency, and possible cap casualties like Justin Houston, Olivier Vernon and Jabaal Sheard.
