This approach is admittedly simplistic, but it illustrates my approach to expectations, and why I don't get too excited about occasional Ram lapses.
Here are my odds of the Rams winning in each of their remaining regular season games.
Eagles 7 out 10
at Cards 7 out 10
49ers 8 out 10
That works out to about a 40% chance of going undefeated in those remaining games. There's a slightly better chance that they'll drop yet another game.
In any case, the Rams are in the playoffs, and my assumption at this point is that they will be at least the #2 seed.
Given that the Saints have a tie breaker advantage on the Rams, I'm simply estimating that the Rams have a 40% chance of being the #1 seed and a 60% chance of being the #2 seed.
OK? I hope that sounds reasonable to most of you.
If the Rams were the 1 seed I'd give them a 60% chance of winning the NFC championship, and if they are on the road I give them a 40% chance.
It's difficult to predict exactly how the playoffs may turn out. Perhaps the New Orleans Saints will be the #1 seed, but lose in the divisional round.
That could give the Rams the home advantage in the NFCC anyway.
So putting that all together, I come up with an estimate of their odds in the playoffs as follows -
Round 1 - bye
Round 2 - 70%
NFCC - 50%
That's a 35% chance of going to the Superbowl. Below 50%. Not something to be counted on.
If they make it to the Super bowl, I give them 50-50 odds in that game.
So, taken altogether, PER ME, the Rams only have about a 17% chance of winning the Superbowl this year. Less than 1 in 5.
That's not bad, actually. Only 2 or 3 teams have odds that good. Maybe the Saints, or the Chiefs.
But since I truly believe all that, and have believed that since early in the season, I don't regard a Superbowl victory as LIKELY, and certainly not as something that I have a right to expect.
I believe that Goff and McVay are part of a GREAT future for this team, And I also believe that they may not be ready, together, to make it happen yet this year.
They may still be too young and too inexperienced.
That's OK with me. I love these guys anyway, and I think I just need to be patient to see the full flower of their efforts to come.
So, if you're counting on a Superbowl victory, if that's the only way that you can call this season "good", or a "success", then I guess you should be concerned.
But that's just not how I'm approaching it. I am extremely, extremely grateful for what the Rams have done over the last 2 years.
From the signing of McVay, to the enlivening of Goff's career, to so many other moves that they've made, it's been just fantastic to me what they've done.
I think they're just on the cusp of a golden age for Ram fans. And I celebrate that, and I give credit to the people making that happen.
I can't get down because of this loss or that bad performance. And to me, the unrelenting criticism from people who did NOTHING to make any of this happen is just not a good look. It's off putting. Gotta be honest about that. You're just not as much smarter than these guys as you all think you are. In fact, I'm glad you're not in charge and making the decisions.
I've said several times on this board that Goff's development would NOT be a nice, linear progression. Two steps forward, one step back at times.
Games like Minnesota or KC are at one end of his spectrum, and games like Chicago are still at the other end. But the truth is not in the middle of that, it's closer to the positive end.
Here's the thing to know about him. He's a learner. A dedicated scholar of the game. He'll keep getting better, and there will be fewer "Chicago"s in his future.
But he'll never be perfect, or unstoppable. Neither is Brady, or Brees, or Rodgers, or any QB.
I'm enjoying this regular season for what it is in and of itself.
The playoffs are another special addendum to that and have their own flavor. One loss and you're done. That's true for every team.
Sometimes it's luck as much as anything that decides who gets the trophy.
Ramily!
Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 12/12/2018 12:14PM by Saguaro.
