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Rampage2K-
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The way I take Vinny's article here is it's a signal from the Rams that they're willing to go higher than the offer actually on the table but they need AD to come down from his outrageous demands.
Do you genuinely believe AD's demands are "outrageous"?
I would say that unless we hear real numbers, there's no way to judge that.
So for example I can imagine a universe in which a sticker-shocked Rams perceive 24 M as "outrageous" when from another point of view, that's within a plausible range.
That was fiction just to make a point.
I share your concerns about Demoff's language---"among the top defenders" could even mean LESS money than Von Miller, but that would not be market value. I don't know if they're doing that but it does raise a concern that he spoke that way.
But I am not sure that without numbers that I have seen any evidence that AD's demands are :"outrageous."
Maybe they really are.Who knows. But I just don't think we have enough to go on to determine that.
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I have no idea if his demands are outrageous. No one can know that as you say... I was making that statement from the Rams position. That last sentence is essentially what I hear them saying from VB's article. I should have made that clearer.
If I was AD I'd be asking for $24-25. Is that outrageous?
Considering Von Miller just signed for $19M per two years ago and he is a pass rushing OLB who historically get paid higher then DT's , It's not outrageous, but it's more then the Rams should pay... we have too many emerging stars who we are going to want to keep also.
I think $21-22M is about what
should be enough to get him signed and probably close to what the Rams are offering
The problem is AD is breaking the mold for a DT. Snead acknowledged this year that with the way he pressures the QB, they don't need as much from the edge. That's a huge concession. It's essentially stating that Donald's impact is as good or better than the best edge defenders. And the stats corroborate that. So he's rightfully going to demand to be paid like a top tier edge defender.
Considering that he's better than Suh was when he got 19.062 three years ago, there's the problem... It would almost be better if he wasn't quite as good.
I wish he would sign for $21-22M. I suspect he won't settle for less than $23M.
The Rams had a pass rush last year because of the way they used Donald. If not for Donald, what they had on the edge last year would not have produced 20.5 sacks.
Also there's this:
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www.nfl.com]
I asked 27 coaches, front-office executives, scouts and players to help me interpret the relevant traditional stats, advanced stats and observable video data (game film). I used what I learned from them to help minimize error and maximize “actual football reasons” in my model. Then I took the benchmarks, insights and results back to these same 27 people to verify and refine my findings.
There is a premium on interior pressure — and Donald is a monster
My 10-year model shows that over the past three seasons, offensive trends — like an increase in designed shorter passes (with intentional shorter times to throw) — have been accompanied by an increase in unsuccessful plays caused by inside defensive pressures. By evaluating pass plays that have resulted in first downs and touchdowns, my model shows that disruption in the middle of the offensive line is increasingly associated with fewer offensive conversions and points scored.
Some of the people I asked for input said this is because teams are leveraging intentionally shorter passes to nullify dominant edge rushers, and others added that it’s due to the increased influence of college-style spread offenses being implemented in the NFL. Shorter passes are considered higher-probability passes. The big takeaway here is that, in a time when defenses are facing more short passing attempts, interior pressure is associated with a 27 percent decrease in offensive conversions.
There's a lot there but the point is simple. Teams value interior rushing MORE now, because offenses have come to use short quick passing games to counter the outside rush.
Plus there's this. The deadly combo is a good edge rusher plus a great interior rusher. But to get that, you have to first find a great interior rusher. Of the 35 players with 8 or more sacks last year, only 3 are listed as DTs (and the other 2 are not as good as Donald, though they are good. They're just not AD). What that says is that if you have an elite DT it's easier to find a good outside rusher. But if you don't have an elite DT, it's impossible to find one...they just don't come around very often.
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