OK, so maybe this comes from the "no duh!" category, but now I've done the statistical analysis to back it up.
I've heard a bunch of pundits pick the Falcons based pretty much on the idea of "playoff experience." My thought was, "Yeah, but so what? The Falcons have not been worldbeaters this year."
So I set out to see what the real story over the last ten years has been when it comes to NFL Playoff experience. The results definitely have me feeling nervous.
In my analysis, I defined "playoff experience" as at least one appearance by the team in the previous four years. I figured that, after that, there was probably enough roster turnover that you wouldn't consider the team to be "experienced" in the playoffs.
I only looked at the results from the wildcard round. As it turns out, the 2013 Panthers are the only team in the last ten years with "zero playoff experience" (by my definition) to get a 1 or 2 seed (they were #2). They lost to the 49ers.
So, since the 2007-2008 playoffs, here are the results (again, only from the wildcard round)...
Number of wins by a team with "zero playoff experience": 4
Number of wins by a team with "less playoff experience" than their opponent: 14
Number of wins by a team with "greater playoff experience" than their opponent: 20
The biggest upset by a team with "zero playoff experience" was the 2011 Broncos defeating the Steelers. The Steelers had been to the playoffs three times in the previous four years. The other three wins by "zero-experience" teams were all against teams that had only been to the playoffs once in the previous four years. That is good news for the Rams, because the Falcons currently only have one year of playoff experience by my definition (though, obviously, some specific players like Matt Ryan have more).
Every game is its own game and has its own unique factors. Whether the Rams win or they lose, it may not be clear how much playoff experience factored in or didn't. However, when analyzed against the history of the last ten years, the deck is stacked against the Rams on Saturday. A playoff loss is statistically likely. A playoff win would make the Rams one of only five teams to win a game with "zero playoff experience" in the last ten years.
You can download my spreadsheet here if you want to see it for yourself:
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