Russell Wilson in the Rain
Posted on November 8, 2017 by Kevin Pelton
Last Sunday against Washington, Russell Wilson had one of his worst games of the season, completing just 24-of-45 passes in the Seattle Seahawks’ 17-14 home loss. The game was played in the rain, as was Wilson’s other weak performance at home this season in a 12-9 win over the 0-8 San Francisco 49ers.
The idea that Wilson struggles in wet conditions has become something of an accepted fact among Seahawks fans at this point, but I still wanted to quantify whether this is a real phenomenon. Using Weather Underground’s archive of historical data, I charted every Seahawks regular-season home game played on a day recorded as having rain. There have been 27 of them during Wilson’s career, as compared to 17 regular-season home games with dry weather. The statistical difference in Wilson’s performance in these sets of games is striking.
Weather Comp% Y/A TD% Int%
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Dry 68.8% 8.8 6.5% 1.5%
Rain 61.6% 8.0 5.9% 2.1%
Wilson is worse across the board in games on rainy days in Seattle, completing a remarkable 7.2 percent fewer of his pass attempts. How meaningful is this difference? Wilson’s 68.8 percent completion percentage under dry conditions would rank fourth among NFL quarterbacks this season. His 61.6 percent completion percentage in the rain would rank 22nd.
By virtue of completing long passes, Wilson’s yard per attempt are better across the board than his completion percentage. But his yards per attempt on rainy days would be tied for sixth in the NFL, while no quarterback this year has come close to Wilson’s 8.8 yards per attempt in dry conditions. (Naturally, other quarterbacks would look better if we look solely at their home performance.) Wilson throws touchdowns more frequently per pass attempt when it’s dry, and interceptions more frequently when it’s wet.
The kicker, as I shared during my grievance about Wilson’s performance in the rain on this week’s episode of the Fabulous Peltoncast, is the Seahawks’ record as a team by weather conditions. In regular-season home games on rainy days, they’ve gone 20-7 since drafting Wilson, a respectable 74 percent winning percentage. When it’s dry, the Seahawks have never lost at home with Wilson at quarterback: they’re 17-0 during the regular season, plus 2-0 in two dry home playoff games.
When we consult the stats, it’s clear: the best defense for Wilson at home is a rainy Seattle day.
(Hear my grievance about Wilson in the rain in audio format)
~ max ~
“The consciousness of good intentions disdains ambiguity.” - Alexander Hamilton
