I don't get the strategy that I see in the NFL of KO's or KO returns. The league moved the ball placement to the 25 to incentivise NOT returning the ball, but I've yet to see a team make use of it the way the metrics say they should.
Looking at the Kick Off return stats for 2016, I just don't see why any team would return KOs that reach the end zone.
The likelihood of a penalty that gives you bad field position is large.
And the 5th best KO returner in the league averaged only returning the ball 24 yards per kick, and some of that yardage is inside the end zone. So the odds are super high that few returns would reach the 25 yard line.
Last year in 256 games, only 7 return TDs were scored. I don't know how many KO's that entailed per game. But let's just say conservatively that it was 6 (it was probably more). That means the odds are AT BEST 1 in 250 that a KO return results in a TD. Or better: the odds are 249 in 250 that you will NOT score a TD on a KO return. So a KO return as "a play" is pretty questionable to me. And TDs are so rare that they really happen almost as an accident.
Could you imagine a manager in Baseball having a guy try to steal a base if the metrics showed a 1 in 250 chance that it might succeed? That he would be thrown out 249 out of 250 times?
To me the metrics say a KO into the end zone is a gift the NFL has served up. Be smart and take it.
Even more, if I was the Kicking team, I'd have two basic plays: kick the ball through the end zone for no return possibility, or kick the ball very high to inside the 5 to force a return believing that most times you can stop the team well short of the 25.
