1st and 2nd year of QB not a good indicator of long term success

It is interesting when you look at QBs coming into the league as to how well they do immediately. I'll say up front that my take is anecdotal from decades of watching, and not from going through lists of stats.

If the QB is big, strong armed, and a good runner, they tend to do better immediately especially if they were a senior and had lots of starts.
But, often, their strong 1st and 2nd year isn't followed up with greater development. That is why for me Wentz, for example, is still not proven even though admittedly he had a terrific first year. He reminds me an awful lot of Donovan McNabb who reached his ceiling pretty early and never got much better.

RG3 of course immediately comes to mind as a prime example of an overnight success who couldn't parlay it into long term success.

We're also seeing this right now with Bortles. I don't know if his rookie year was his ceiling, or he was pressed into service too soon, or he wasn't given the coaching he needed for development, or what. But he was a star in the making in year one; pretty much the same in year 2; then a little disappointing in year 3; highly questioned in year 4: and the Jags are about ready to throw in the towel on him in year 5.

That is certainly not always the case as with Russel Wilson.

Point being that you really have to wait 3 or 4 years to know what you're actually getting. Because once D's have tape on you they will play to your weaknesses. So if you don't improve those weaknesses, your goose is cooked.

What seems to matter is to see good steady improvement year over year for a QB. Better mechanics; better reading of D's. Better decision making. Your arm isn't going to improve; it is what it is. If you come in weak armed, you'll stay that way. If you come in not accurate you'll probably always be not accurate.

This is the reason that I at least have some hope with Goff. I'm seeing a different, much improved guy already than I did in his rookie year. His college days seem to indicate that he improves each year. Of course everyone has a ceiling; where his is we're probably 3 years or so from knowing.

But what we see so far is that he is not physically limited arm wise; he can make every throw. He is naturally accurate and has a quick release. He has a little more athleticism than I thought and can roll out with ease right or left and throw outside the pocket. He is focused and mentally tough. Even under the rush he keeps his eyes downfield. He can definitely take a hit and keep on ticking. Doesn't seem to have an over inflated ego. Staff says he's coachable and can translate it from the classroom to the practice field. I don't know much about "mechanics" but those that do say he has good mechanics and McVay is indicating that they are also improving in subtle ways that most people would never notice.....but the coaches do. And the talking head QBs say that in the NFL a QB MUST develop really good mechanics or he will be greatly limited.

To me the key word is development. Rogers is a prime example. That young man had great talent but he was also brought along slowly and carefully developed. I really think that Goff is in a true development program with guys who know how and have had great success (Ryan, Cousins). In fact, I also notice the difference in Mannion between this year and last. Mannion can play in this league.

Bottom line: we Rams fans better be patient. I think McVay is going to be VERY patient with Goff. He understands Goff's super young age (he's about the age of most college Juniors) and that he has to be schooled and then advanced as he grasps and can execute what he has been taught.