Lockout in 2021 is "almost a virtual certainty"...

[profootballtalk.nbcsports.com]

De Smith: Lockout or strike in 2021 is “almost a virtual certainty”
Posted by Mike Florio on August 17, 2017

Four seasons remain under the current labor deal, but the drums of labor war already are beating.

“I think that the likelihood of either a strike or a lockout in 2021 is almost a virtual certainty,” NFL Players Association DeMaurice Smith recently told Albert Breer in a video posted at SI.com.

There can be a lockout without games being forfeited; that’s what happened in 2011. So will there be games missed if there’s a work stoppage in 2021?

“I don’t know now, but let’s look at our history,” Smith said. “The owners do a deal in 2006 and opt out in 2008. We do a deal in 2011 with no opt outs because we like the benefits under the current deal and we didn’t want to give the owners a chance to opt out and take back the gains that we currently have. . . . So we have a new deal where if it doesn’t get fixed you head into a certain small-A armageddon.”

In many respects, the situation will be influenced by whether the owners seek to make gains, whether the players seek to make gains, or both. It’s possible that the owners, who complained incessantly about the 2006 deal and never say a peep about the current deal (and all that that implies), will be playing defense in 2021, content to continue under the current terms and daring the players to strike.

Ultimately the question could be whether the players would miss game checks. Many believe that ship sailed for good in 1987, when the use of replacement players caused the players to crater after only a few weeks. The last major work stoppage came in 1982. That year, a strike reduced the regular season to nine games.

If the players are going to strike in 2021, those who will still be in the league need to save their money, and the union needs to have a plan to provide revenue for future players who currently are in college or high school. Above all else, the players need to be willing to go without football.

The best litmus test for the will to strike in the future could be an effort to boycott on a mass basis the voluntary portion of the offseason program. While players with significant workout bonuses may not be inclined to stay away, if enough players skip OTAs to make the session essentially meaningless, that would provide ownership with a capital-W warning shot for what may come in time.

[www.espn.com]

The NFL and its union agreed to the current 10-year CBA on July 25, 2011. That agreement came after a 132-day lockout.

The agreed-upon CBA hasn't meant there has been labor peace, however, as the NFLPA has clashed with the NFL over player discipline in such high-profile cases as Adrian Peterson's suspension for child abuse, Tom Brady's Deflategate suspension and, most recently, Ezekiel Elliott's suspension for alleged domestic violence.

On Wednesday, the NFL and the players' association released dueling statements in which the NFL alleged that the union was releasing details of Elliott's accuser's text messages to discredit her. The NFLPA responded by calling the accusations a lie.

The last time NFL players missed games was the 24-day strike in 1987, which began after Week 2 and prompted the NFL to cancel its Week 3 games and shorten the season to 15 games. The league played with replacement players for the next three weeks until the players ended their strike after Week 6.