Quote
dzrams
So you mean for every bust there is a great, and possibly future HOF, player? Most GMs would kill for that result.
But this goes back to my question. What's the expectation? 2 great players for every bust? To not have any failures?
It always seems that those who criticize the record the most don't want to define what the standard is.
I looked into this once. I looked at older drafts from some good drafting teams.
I counted as "hits" any significant contributor--including credible starters and nickel backs, not just starters, PRs and KRs, 3rd WRs, etc. I say "credible starters" because sometimes a guy just starts cause they drafted him high. So I went far enough back in time to weed those kinds of guys out. If a team dumps a high draft pick after 2-3 years then he doesn't count as a credible starter.
Counting the "hits,": what I found was
Average is in the mid to high 30%
Good is 40% to high 40s.
Excellent is 50% or better and it;'s rare.
This percentage system does not get into quality of the player, which is a different issue. It just tells you the basic bottomline for a credible discussion. Grading is separate and on top of that.
Basically,. EVERY GOOD DRAFTING TEAM has Peads and Quicks. Just mentioning those guys is unrealistic.
So yeah all good drafting teams have busts. Simply naming some of them tells you nothing.
Look at 2017. If for example the Rams eventually over the next couple of years get 5 starters out of this draft, going back to 1967 (which is as far as I looked), it
will only be the 5th time they;'ve ever done it in the last 50 or so years. (And they did it previously with 1st round picks when they didn't have one in 2017).
73: Bryant, Jawarski, Youngblood, Nelson, Jones
75: Fanning, Harrah, France, Jackson, Perry, Haden
77: Brudzinski, Cromwell, Waddy, Tyler, Ferragamo
83: Dickerson, Ellard, Wilcher, Newsome, Reed
At a more basic level, if the Rams hit on say 40-48% of their picks from the last 2 drafts, they will be doing well by league standards. (That percentage of 14 players would be anywhere from 5-7 hits.)
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 06/17/2017 05:19AM by zn.