Re: FootballOutsiders: post-draft 2017 NFL projections

Don't know if this will work or not.

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With the NFL draft in the rearview mirror, it's time for another round of Football Outsiders projections for the 2017 season. As with the projections we did in April, this forecast shows how parity has declined in the NFL over the past few years. Fewer teams are making rapid turnarounds from one season to the next -- and predicting which teams will make those rapid turnarounds is always difficult. Nonetheless, we can get a good idea of why certain teams will be better or worse in 2017 by looking at their underlying performance in 2016 (not just simple wins and losses), and then factoring in coaching/personnel changes and general year-to-year regression trends.
While the NFL draft plays a huge role in building a winning franchise, its effect on the next season is small and difficult to predict. Did your team add a bunch of promising talent on draft day? Guess what: So did every other team -- except the Patriots, who added veteran talent before draft day instead. The draft does play a small role in changing our projections from what we had a month ago, but perhaps not in the way you might expect. Although offense is generally more predictable than defense, drafting defensive players near the top of the draft tends to have a stronger positive effect than drafting offensive players near the top of the draft. Subjectively, we can all be excited that the Los Angeles Chargers added wide receiver Mike Williams and then filled two holes on their offensive line. But objectively, Indianapolis drafting Malik Hooker and Quincy Wilson in the first two rounds has a stronger effect on our forecast for 2017. (But not much stronger: We still have Indianapolis third in the AFC South.)
Our projection system starts with Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings for the past three years, although last year's ratings end up about six times as important as either 2014 or 2015. (You can find last year's final ratings here.) Offensive projections also incorporate a separate projection for the starting quarterback done independent of the team. After that, we account for general regression trends and incorporate a number of other variables that measure everything from turnover ratios to personnel and coaching changes on both sides of the ball.
Each team has a forecasted record but also, for those of you wanting more detail, a more exact "mean projected wins" number. We also list strength of schedule based on average projected DVOA of next year's 16 opponents, ranked from the hardest (Philadelphia is No. 1) to the easiest (New England).
When considering these numbers, remember that this is not the final, official Football Outsiders forecast for 2017. There are still personnel moves to be made, and improvements to our forecast system that will alter our projections before we publish Football Outsiders Almanac 2017 in July.
Also note that stat projections naturally consider a wide range of possibilities. There's a lot of randomness in the NFL: Player development is difficult to predict, injuries have a huge impact, and even the better team on an individual day might not win a game because of the arbitrary bounce of a fumble or a tipped pass. A team projected to go 7-9 could realistically end up anywhere between 3-13 and 11-5. Taking the average of so many possibilities, all teams end up grouped more toward 8-8 with few teams listed with double-digit wins or losses. We've tweaked the results slightly to get a more realistic spread of win-loss records, but nonetheless, the numbers published below don't mean that we expect the 2017 season to end with no team below 5-11.

AFC East
New England Patriots: 13-3 (13.4 mean wins, SOS: 32)
Buffalo Bills: 7-9 (6.9 mean wins; SOS: 24)
Miami Dolphins: 7-9 (6.6 mean wins; SOS: 18)
New York Jets: 6-10 (5.8 mean wins; SOS: 21)
The Patriots already had a top-five projection in all three phases of the game, but it got even stronger after they signed Mike Gillislee away from the Bills. Gillislee led running backs in our DVOA and success rate metrics last year, though with an asterisk: It takes 100 carries to be ranked, and Gillislee had 101. We're also still projecting the Patriots with the easiest schedule in the league, because we're forecasting decline for many of their out-of-division opponents including Atlanta, Denver and Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, the rest of the AFC East comes in under .500. I still feel our Miami projection is a bit too pessimistic; the Dolphins' 10-6 record last year was built on an easy schedule, but Miami wasn't a bad team that lucked into a playoff spot, just an average one. On the other hand, our Jets projection may seem too optimistic. It's lifted by a better-than-expected defensive projection, because run defense is more consistent from year to year than pass defense and the Jets had the No. 1 run defense in the league last season.


AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers: 13-3 (12.9 mean wins; SOS: 27)
Baltimore Ravens: 8-8 (8.2 mean wins; SOS: 25)
Cincinnati Bengals: 8-8 (8.2 mean wins; SOS: 26)
Cleveland Browns: 5-11 (5.2 mean wins; SOS: 16)
Pittsburgh and New England come out far ahead of the rest of the league in our forecast, with the Steelers powered by the best offensive projection in the league. Pittsburgh has exceptional offensive line continuity, as all five starting linemen have been with the Steelers for at least four seasons. Pittsburgh may have the best running back and the best wide receiver in the league, and we can expect some rebound from Ben Roethlisberger after an inconsistent 2016 season. Baltimore has moved up a bit from our April projections and Cincinnati has moved down, a function of what's written above about defensive draft picks vs. offensive draft picks. (The Ravens used their top four picks on defensive players, while the Bengals took wide receiver John Ross and running back Joe Mixon with their first two selections.)

AFC South
Tennessee Titans: 8-8 (8.3 mean wins; SOS: 29)
Jacksonville Jaguars: 8-8 (7.6 mean wins; SOS: 31)
Indianapolis Colts: 7-9 (7.3 mean wins; SOS: 30)
Houston Texans: 6-10 (6.0 mean wins; SOS: 10)
On the basis of play-by-play performance, the Titans were the best team in the division last season, ranked 15th in our DVOA ratings. They've made some strong free-agent additions on defense, though the decision to cut cornerback Jason McCourty is curious. Our system also buys into the Jaguars a little bit. They were dead last in defensive turnovers per drive, a strong indicator of future improvement, and eventually drafting all that defensive talent and signing free agents such as Calais Campbell and A.J. Bouye has to pay off. Of course, given the state of the Jaguars' offense, it's still not likely to pay off with a playoff appearance, but the team should at least be competitive.

The Titans have done a nice job of surrounding Marcus Mariota with more talent, particularly on defense. Rob Foldy/Getty Images
Houston may have won the division last season, but they were a dismal 29th in our DVOA ratings. That first-place finish doesn't do the Texans any schedule favors, because there's a big difference between playing the Patriots and playing the other AFC East teams. Drafting Deshaun Watson doesn't really improve their offensive projection too much; it's not realistic to expect a good season from any rookie, even a first-round pick. Houston is also surprisingly consistent on special teams, and not in a good way; they've ranked in the bottom five for five straight seasons. Those two units outweigh a defense that was good last year and should be better with the return of J.J. Watt. Meanwhile, Indianapolis is listed here at 7-9, same as they were in our April forecast. However, drafting all that defensive talent has changed the actual Colts average from 6.6 wins to 7.3 wins.

AFC West
Oakland Raiders: 9-7 (8.9 mean wins; SOS: 13)
Kansas City Chiefs: 8-8 (8.2 mean wins; SOS: 6)
Los Angeles Chargers: 8-8 (7.5 mean wins; SOS: 14)
Denver Broncos: 6-10 (6.1 mean wins; SOS: 7)
You may be surprised these projected records for the AFC West aren't higher, but it's a product of schedule, exchanging the South divisions for the East divisions. Oakland is still our favorite for 2017, thanks to a top-10 offense and a defense that should improve with a healthy year from pass-rusher Mario Edwards Jr. and the addition of Oakland's first three draft selections. Kansas City projects to be similar to last year, but with less good fortune: The Chiefs were 6-2 in regular-season games decided by less than a touchdown, and led the NFL by ending 16.7 percent of opposing drives with a takeaway. The Chargers, of course, were the opposite in terms of luck. They hope a new coaching staff will help prevent so many close losses and blown fourth-quarter leads, but a new set of schemes often means a step backward as well.
That's also an issue in Denver, as a full turnover of the coaching staff often presages a drop for winning teams. The Broncos already defied historical NFL trends by putting up a second straight year of otherworldly pass defense, and the odds they can do it three straight years are even longer. We have the Broncos seventh in our defensive projections, and with their offense and schedule, that wouldn't be enough to have a winning team.

Full AFC standings
1. New England
2. Pittsburgh
3. Oakland
4. Tennessee
5. Baltimore (wild card?)
6. Kansas City (wild card?)
7. Cincinnati (wild card?)
8. Jacksonville
9. Los Angeles Chargers
10. Indianapolis
11. Buffalo
12. Miami
13. Denver
14. Houston
15. New York Jets
16. Cleveland
Cincinnati, Baltimore and Kansas City all have mean projections within 0.05 wins of each other, so specifically designating two of them as projected wild cards is somewhat meaningless.

NFC East
Dallas Cowboys: 10-6 (9.7 mean wins, SOS: 2)
New York Giants: 8-8 (7.8 mean wins, SOS: 4)
Washington Redskins: 8-8 (7.5 mean wins, SOS: 3)
Philadelphia Eagles: 7-9 (7.3 mean wins, SOS: 1)
Last year, all four NFC East teams finished in the DVOA top 10, and this again looks like the strongest division in the NFL. Our projections are a little lower for Washington and Philadelphia in 2017, but the entire division still comes out as above-average in mean projected DVOA. The problem isn't just these teams beating up on each other for six games -- the NFC East also draws the two West divisions, which means facing many of the league's top defenses. Right now in the NFC East, it isn't good enough to be good. You need to be great. With an easier schedule, an NFC South or West team doesn't have to play as well as an NFC East team to make the postseason as a wild card.

Kirk Cousins will have a new offensive coordinator in 2017. Steve Nurenberg/Icon Sportswire
We still have Dallas repeating as the most likely scenario, although our projections may underrate the importance of their defensive losses because there may be a compound effect from losing so many players at the same position (defensive back). The Giants should be better on offense but may face regression on defense (where they went from 30th in 2015 to second in 2016). Philadelphia was better than its record in 2016 but has dropped slightly since our April forecast, while Washington has moved up a little bit. However, we still have Washington lower than last season, as the Redskins must adapt to a new offensive coordinator and overcome the loss of their top two wide receivers.

NFC North
Green Bay Packers: 10-6 (10.2 mean wins, SOS: 11)
Detroit Lions: 8-8 (7.8 mean wins, SOS: 9)
Chicago Bears: 7-9 (6.8 mean wins, SOS: 12)
Minnesota Vikings: 6-10 (6.4 mean wins, SOS: 8)
When Aaron Rodgers is on his game, the recipe for the Packers is simple: good team if the defense is bad and great team if the defense is good. Our projections lean a bit more toward the former than the latter, but the Packers are still well ahead of the rest of their division. Close wins put the Lions into the playoffs last year despite ranking just 27th in DVOA. They aren't going to rank last in our defensive ratings again, especially after drafting defensive talent such as Jarrad Davis and Teez Tabor, but with less luck they'll end up with fewer wins despite better underlying statistics.
Improvement for the Chicago Bears has nothing to do with Mike Glennon. It's more likely that free-agent additions on defense and better health will improve the defense. The Bears led the NFL in our adjusted games lost injury metric last season. Minnesota was mediocre in 2016 but it's a bit surprising to see the Vikings forecast with more decline. Admittedly, it's a weird projection, because there's no particular reason to expect the Vikings will be worse. The problem is that there are a number of reasons for other defenses to get better. Effectively, the Vikings don't go backward; they stand still while other teams pass them by.

NFC South
Carolina Panthers: 9-7 (9.1 mean wins, SOS: 28)
Atlanta Falcons: 9-7 (8.5 mean wins, SOS: 15)
New Orleans Saints: 7-9 (7.0 mean wins, SOS: 19)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7-9 (6.8 mean wins, SOS: 17)
Carolina's projection is pretty simple: a bit of rebound on both sides of the ball combined with an easy schedule. (It helps, for example, to play San Francisco instead of one of the other three NFC West teams.) The Panthers will have a close race with the Falcons, whose late-season defensive improvement is likely to continue in 2017. However, we're also expecting some regression from the Atlanta offense, particularly because of the loss of offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan.

It will be hard for Matt Ryan and Julio Jones to keep up with their incredible numbers from last season. Frank Mattia/Icon Sportswire
Tampa Bay has a lot of young, developing offensive talent, plus the addition of DeSean Jackson, so I think there's a better chance of the Buccaneers taking a step forward than an average projection of 7-9 indicates. However, there's a strong sign for regression on defense: the Bucs were second in the league in defensive turnovers per drive last year, ending 15.6 percent of possessions with a takeaway. That number is likely to be lower in 2017.
New Orleans got rid of its best wide receiver and once again projects to have the worst defense in the league.

NFC West
Seattle Seahawks: 11-5 (11.4 mean wins, SOS: 22)
Arizona Cardinals: 9-7 (8.6 mean wins, SOS: 20)
Los Angeles Rams: 8-8 (8.2 mean wins, SOS: 23)
San Francisco 49ers: 5-11 (5.2 mean wins, SOS: 5)
Seattle's run of four straight years on top of our DVOA ratings ended last season, but there's plenty of reason to believe the Seahawks' defense can rebound once Earl Thomas gets back on the field. We've tempered our offensive projection for Arizona since our April forecast after comparing Carson Palmer's recent history to other quarterbacks who had one big season in their 30s. Nevertheless, Arizona should have a top defense and the offense should rebound a little bit and be at least average.
Our Rams forecast got a lot of surprised reaction when we published our projections in April. There are two big reasons for the positive prediction. First, it is almost impossible for the Rams' offense to be as bad in 2017 as it was in 2016. Last year's Rams had the fourth-worst offensive DVOA in the past 30 seasons. Improving that to just garden-variety bad, something akin to last year's Texans, would be worth a win or two. Second, Wade Phillips has a phenomenal record of improving defenses in his first year as head coach or defensive coordinator.
Team
Years
Pre-Wade
Rk
Wade Y1
Rk
DEN
88-89
13.9%
27
-16.6%
4
BUF
94-95
3.8%
19
-6.5%
10
ATL
01-02
11.8%
26
-4.1%
12
SD
03-04
12.0%
30
-4.2%
13
DAL (HC)
06-07
-1.5%
14
-6.8%
9
HOU
10-11
17.5%
31
-9.5%
6
DEN
14-15
-13.2%
4
-36.0%
1
AVG

6.3%
21.6
-12.0%
7.9

Phillips' scheme will likely have a similar effect in Los Angeles, where the defense was already loaded with talent in the front seven but underperformed and finished just 15th in defensive DVOA in 2016. Our current projections put them 28th on offense, second on defense (behind Seattle), and third on special teams (behind Baltimore and New England), which would be enough to make the Rams playoff contenders.

Full NFC standings
1. Seattle
2. Green Bay
3. Dallas
4. Carolina
5. Arizona*
6. Atlanta*
7. Los Angeles Rams
8. Detroit
9. New York Giants
10. Washington
11. Philadelphia
12. New Orleans
13. Tampa Bay
14. Chicago
15. Minnesota
16. San Francisco
*Projected wild-card team



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/16/2017 06:43AM by Hazlet Hacksaw.