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ESPN:NFL contenders gone wrong: Barnwell ranks Rams among the six top playoff fallers
| October 10, 2019 10:41AM | Registered: 14 years ago Posts: 2,221 Status: GSOT Member |
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/27805932/nfl-contenders-gone-wrong-barnwell-ranks-six-top-playoff-fallers
Los Angeles Rams
Preseason playoff chances: 72.8%
Current playoff chances: 51.6%
Playoff chances decline: -21.2%
Of course, this could be an even more extreme drop-off if we set the initial bar after Week 3. The Rams started 3-0, with a win over the Saints, giving Sean McVay's team the inside track to the top seed in the NFC. At that point, the Rams had a 92.1% chance of making it to the postseason, best in the conference.
Since then, they have gone 0-2, including a loss to the division-rival Seahawks. The 49ers went through their bye and dominated the Browns on Monday Night Football. Forget first place in the conference; the Rams are in third place in their own division. Their playoff chances will fall below 50% if they lose what suddenly looms as a critical game against the Niners in Los Angeles this Sunday.
What's happened? To start, L.A. has been hit by the sort of bad luck it mostly avoided in 2018. The 13-3 Rams went 6-1 in games decided by seven points or fewer because they came up with the big play at the exact moment they needed one. They forced takeaways late in the fourth quarter just as other teams were going to have a shot to win the game. They came up with critical fourth-down conversions to seal games up. Quarterbacks missed open receivers at exactly the worst possible time.
Over the past two weeks, the pages have turned. With the Rams driving to try and tie the game down 48-40, pass-rusher Shaq Barrett forced a strip sack and former defensive Rams tackle Ndamukong Suh returned it for a game-sealing touchdown. The following week saw the Seahawks convert on fourth-and-goal when Russell Wilson found a wide-open Chris Carson in the end zone for a touchdown, and while he bobbled the pass and stopped Seattle hearts for a moment, Carson caught the ball on his second try to put the Seahawks ahead.
The Seahawks then came up with a spectacular interception of Jared Goff on the Rams' first attempt to take back the lead with 2:13 to go. L.A. got the ball back, but after Goff drove the team into field goal range, Greg Zuerlein reminded us that he was human. He had been 12-of-13 in the final five minutes of the fourth quarter and overtime under McVay, only for the Rams to take an inexplicable delay of game penalty with 20 seconds to go before Zuerlein pulled his 44-yard kick narrowly wide. This stuff didn't happen to them last season.
The Rams have started slowly in 2019, and Jared Goff has posted a 44.3 Total QBR, which ranks 23rd in the league. Abbie Parr/Getty Images
The Rams recovered a league-high 71% of the fumbles in their games in 2018, then came away with all three of the fumbles in their 30-27 victory over the Panthers in the opener. Since then, though, they have recovered just one of the ensuing seven fumbles across their four other games. McVay's team finished with a turnover margin of plus-11 last season, the fourth-best figure in the NFL; with Goff throwing seven interceptions and the fumble recovery rate regressing toward the mean, the team has a turnover margin of minus-4 after five games.
I wrote about Goff after Week 3 and covered the issues with Los Angeles's offensive identity after Week 4, so I won't go too much into those concerns again. Goff did miss a couple of throws against the Seahawks, but Total QBR agreed that it was his best game of the season, as he posted a 63.9 mark and put his team in a position to win the game.
Two things about how McVay approached the Seahawks game stood out as particularly interesting to me. One is that he scrapped his load management scheme for Todd Gurley. After playing Gurley on just over 71% of Los Angeles' offensive snaps through the first four games of the season, McVay bit the bullet and sent Gurley out for 62 of Los Angeles' 67 offensive snaps against the Seahawks, which is nearly 93%. Was it because the Rams were in a key divisional game? Did he make the decision because the Rams were playing on Thursday and would have 10 days before their next game? Regardless of why McVay increased the running back's workload, there appear to be consequences: Gurley is struggling with a thigh contusion and is questionable to play against the 49ers.
The other change was how McVay employed his personnel. The Rams were able to revitalize their offense during stretches in December and January by going with 12 personnel and getting both tight ends Gerald Everett and Tyler Higbee on the field. That made sense with Cooper Kupp sidelined by a torn ACL, but with Kupp back in the fold, the Rams went with 12 personnel on just 5% of their runs through the first four games of the season.
Even though they started the game with all three of their standout wide receivers healthy against the Seahawks, McVay used two or more tight ends on 26-of-67 snaps against Seattle on Thursday. Wide receiver Brandin Cooks eventually left the game with a concussion, but the Rams used 12 personnel most frequently in the first quarter, when he was still available. When the Rams went to those sets, they generally sacrificed Kupp, which seems surprising given how effective he has been this season. The gambit didn't really work -- just 29% of Los Angeles' snaps out of 12 personnel were considered successful plays by the NFL's Next-Gen Stats, as opposed to a 52% success rate out of their more traditional 11 grouping.
I suspect McVay wanted to use the 12 personnel to try to create easier running opportunities for Gurley. It also helped out an offensive line that is struggling right now in ways I wouldn't have expected. The natural expectation before the year was that the interior of the Rams line would struggle, given that Los Angeles had two new starters at left guard (Joe Noteboom) and center (Brian Allen). The hope was that the Rams could rebuild on the interior while relying on dominant play from star tackles Andrew Whitworth and Rob Havenstein.
Instead, while Allen has stepped in and played at a high level, the tackles are the ones noticeably struggling. In 2018, they combined for just eight penalties, three of which were holding calls. In 2019, though, Whitworth and Havenstein have already combined for 10 penalties, including five holding calls, through five games. Last year, Whitworth (first) and Havenstein (eight) were both among the top 10 for tackles in ESPN's pass block win rate statistic. This year, Whitworth is 20th, while Havenstein has fallen all the way to 46th.
The biggest concern for the Rams, though, has to be on the other side of the ball. Los Angeles allowed Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston to complete more than 70% of their collective passes, average 10.2 yards per attempt, and throw eight touchdowns against just one pick. The resulting 89.0 Total QBR the Rams have allowed over that time frame is last in the NFL. The Rams are not supposed to be last in the NFL at anything.
Aaron Donald, who lives in the opposing backfield, hasn't knocked down an opposing quarterback once over the last two games. That's very strange. Clay Matthews had sacks in each of the losses to the Bucs and Seahawks, but he also broke his jaw and will miss the next month. As a team, the Rams have pressured opposing quarterbacks on 27.8% of their dropbacks during those two losses, which isn't a huge drop off from the 29.4% pressure rate they ran during the three-win start to the year.
Cornerback Marcus Peters, who will be a free agent this offseason, has struggled with the Rams. Katharine Lotze/Getty Images
The secondary, though, has been disappointing. Cornerback Marcus Peters has been making critical mental mistakes. On the Mike Evans touchdown catch, Peters was in man coverage without any safety help in a Cover-0 look from Phillips. For some reason, he stood flat-footed at the sticks and didn't run with Evans, who ran right past the former Chiefs standout. Winston had little trouble hitting Evans for a 67-yard score. Last week, the whole secondary seemed to break down on the 40-yard touchdown pass to D.K. Metcalf.
Both passes came off play-action, which has given the Rams fits all season. Over the entire five-week campaign, they have basically passed out whenever teams have play-faked. Opposing quarterbacks are 35-of-42 on play-action, gaining an even 500 yards with five touchdowns and no picks. L.A. ranks last in passer rating (156.5) and QBR (96.7) against play-action. And it is about to take on a 49ers team that runs 29% of its pass snaps off of play-action, which is the second-highest rate in the league.
The Rams will figure things out on defense, if only because they have too much talent to be this bad against the pass for any length of time. This is an organization that has been aggressive in sacrificing draft picks for trades, and it wouldn't shock me if they add a pass rusher to help fill in for Matthews while he's recovering from the jaw injury. The offense, even if it's not quite as efficient as it was in 2018, is still 12th in DVOA. A lot of teams would love to have Los Angeles' problems.
Just two weeks after seeming like the Rams had a clear path to the top seed in the NFC, though, they're in a realistic fight for a playoff spot. I'm skeptical of the Seahawks, who have three wins by two points or less and just played their first game against an opponent not missing its best player, but both Seattle and the 49ers are legitimate playoff contenders. The Rams are still likely to make it into January, but the sense that they are two steps ahead of everyone else is gone.
Los Angeles Rams
Preseason playoff chances: 72.8%
Current playoff chances: 51.6%
Playoff chances decline: -21.2%
Of course, this could be an even more extreme drop-off if we set the initial bar after Week 3. The Rams started 3-0, with a win over the Saints, giving Sean McVay's team the inside track to the top seed in the NFC. At that point, the Rams had a 92.1% chance of making it to the postseason, best in the conference.
Since then, they have gone 0-2, including a loss to the division-rival Seahawks. The 49ers went through their bye and dominated the Browns on Monday Night Football. Forget first place in the conference; the Rams are in third place in their own division. Their playoff chances will fall below 50% if they lose what suddenly looms as a critical game against the Niners in Los Angeles this Sunday.
What's happened? To start, L.A. has been hit by the sort of bad luck it mostly avoided in 2018. The 13-3 Rams went 6-1 in games decided by seven points or fewer because they came up with the big play at the exact moment they needed one. They forced takeaways late in the fourth quarter just as other teams were going to have a shot to win the game. They came up with critical fourth-down conversions to seal games up. Quarterbacks missed open receivers at exactly the worst possible time.
Over the past two weeks, the pages have turned. With the Rams driving to try and tie the game down 48-40, pass-rusher Shaq Barrett forced a strip sack and former defensive Rams tackle Ndamukong Suh returned it for a game-sealing touchdown. The following week saw the Seahawks convert on fourth-and-goal when Russell Wilson found a wide-open Chris Carson in the end zone for a touchdown, and while he bobbled the pass and stopped Seattle hearts for a moment, Carson caught the ball on his second try to put the Seahawks ahead.
The Seahawks then came up with a spectacular interception of Jared Goff on the Rams' first attempt to take back the lead with 2:13 to go. L.A. got the ball back, but after Goff drove the team into field goal range, Greg Zuerlein reminded us that he was human. He had been 12-of-13 in the final five minutes of the fourth quarter and overtime under McVay, only for the Rams to take an inexplicable delay of game penalty with 20 seconds to go before Zuerlein pulled his 44-yard kick narrowly wide. This stuff didn't happen to them last season.
The Rams have started slowly in 2019, and Jared Goff has posted a 44.3 Total QBR, which ranks 23rd in the league. Abbie Parr/Getty Images
The Rams recovered a league-high 71% of the fumbles in their games in 2018, then came away with all three of the fumbles in their 30-27 victory over the Panthers in the opener. Since then, though, they have recovered just one of the ensuing seven fumbles across their four other games. McVay's team finished with a turnover margin of plus-11 last season, the fourth-best figure in the NFL; with Goff throwing seven interceptions and the fumble recovery rate regressing toward the mean, the team has a turnover margin of minus-4 after five games.
I wrote about Goff after Week 3 and covered the issues with Los Angeles's offensive identity after Week 4, so I won't go too much into those concerns again. Goff did miss a couple of throws against the Seahawks, but Total QBR agreed that it was his best game of the season, as he posted a 63.9 mark and put his team in a position to win the game.
Two things about how McVay approached the Seahawks game stood out as particularly interesting to me. One is that he scrapped his load management scheme for Todd Gurley. After playing Gurley on just over 71% of Los Angeles' offensive snaps through the first four games of the season, McVay bit the bullet and sent Gurley out for 62 of Los Angeles' 67 offensive snaps against the Seahawks, which is nearly 93%. Was it because the Rams were in a key divisional game? Did he make the decision because the Rams were playing on Thursday and would have 10 days before their next game? Regardless of why McVay increased the running back's workload, there appear to be consequences: Gurley is struggling with a thigh contusion and is questionable to play against the 49ers.
The other change was how McVay employed his personnel. The Rams were able to revitalize their offense during stretches in December and January by going with 12 personnel and getting both tight ends Gerald Everett and Tyler Higbee on the field. That made sense with Cooper Kupp sidelined by a torn ACL, but with Kupp back in the fold, the Rams went with 12 personnel on just 5% of their runs through the first four games of the season.
Even though they started the game with all three of their standout wide receivers healthy against the Seahawks, McVay used two or more tight ends on 26-of-67 snaps against Seattle on Thursday. Wide receiver Brandin Cooks eventually left the game with a concussion, but the Rams used 12 personnel most frequently in the first quarter, when he was still available. When the Rams went to those sets, they generally sacrificed Kupp, which seems surprising given how effective he has been this season. The gambit didn't really work -- just 29% of Los Angeles' snaps out of 12 personnel were considered successful plays by the NFL's Next-Gen Stats, as opposed to a 52% success rate out of their more traditional 11 grouping.
I suspect McVay wanted to use the 12 personnel to try to create easier running opportunities for Gurley. It also helped out an offensive line that is struggling right now in ways I wouldn't have expected. The natural expectation before the year was that the interior of the Rams line would struggle, given that Los Angeles had two new starters at left guard (Joe Noteboom) and center (Brian Allen). The hope was that the Rams could rebuild on the interior while relying on dominant play from star tackles Andrew Whitworth and Rob Havenstein.
Instead, while Allen has stepped in and played at a high level, the tackles are the ones noticeably struggling. In 2018, they combined for just eight penalties, three of which were holding calls. In 2019, though, Whitworth and Havenstein have already combined for 10 penalties, including five holding calls, through five games. Last year, Whitworth (first) and Havenstein (eight) were both among the top 10 for tackles in ESPN's pass block win rate statistic. This year, Whitworth is 20th, while Havenstein has fallen all the way to 46th.
The biggest concern for the Rams, though, has to be on the other side of the ball. Los Angeles allowed Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston to complete more than 70% of their collective passes, average 10.2 yards per attempt, and throw eight touchdowns against just one pick. The resulting 89.0 Total QBR the Rams have allowed over that time frame is last in the NFL. The Rams are not supposed to be last in the NFL at anything.
Aaron Donald, who lives in the opposing backfield, hasn't knocked down an opposing quarterback once over the last two games. That's very strange. Clay Matthews had sacks in each of the losses to the Bucs and Seahawks, but he also broke his jaw and will miss the next month. As a team, the Rams have pressured opposing quarterbacks on 27.8% of their dropbacks during those two losses, which isn't a huge drop off from the 29.4% pressure rate they ran during the three-win start to the year.
Cornerback Marcus Peters, who will be a free agent this offseason, has struggled with the Rams. Katharine Lotze/Getty Images
The secondary, though, has been disappointing. Cornerback Marcus Peters has been making critical mental mistakes. On the Mike Evans touchdown catch, Peters was in man coverage without any safety help in a Cover-0 look from Phillips. For some reason, he stood flat-footed at the sticks and didn't run with Evans, who ran right past the former Chiefs standout. Winston had little trouble hitting Evans for a 67-yard score. Last week, the whole secondary seemed to break down on the 40-yard touchdown pass to D.K. Metcalf.
Both passes came off play-action, which has given the Rams fits all season. Over the entire five-week campaign, they have basically passed out whenever teams have play-faked. Opposing quarterbacks are 35-of-42 on play-action, gaining an even 500 yards with five touchdowns and no picks. L.A. ranks last in passer rating (156.5) and QBR (96.7) against play-action. And it is about to take on a 49ers team that runs 29% of its pass snaps off of play-action, which is the second-highest rate in the league.
The Rams will figure things out on defense, if only because they have too much talent to be this bad against the pass for any length of time. This is an organization that has been aggressive in sacrificing draft picks for trades, and it wouldn't shock me if they add a pass rusher to help fill in for Matthews while he's recovering from the jaw injury. The offense, even if it's not quite as efficient as it was in 2018, is still 12th in DVOA. A lot of teams would love to have Los Angeles' problems.
Just two weeks after seeming like the Rams had a clear path to the top seed in the NFC, though, they're in a realistic fight for a playoff spot. I'm skeptical of the Seahawks, who have three wins by two points or less and just played their first game against an opponent not missing its best player, but both Seattle and the 49ers are legitimate playoff contenders. The Rams are still likely to make it into January, but the sense that they are two steps ahead of everyone else is gone.
| Subject | Author | Views | Posted |
|---|---|---|---|
 | sacram | 300 | October 10, 2019 10:41AM |
| ferragamo79 | 199 | October 10, 2019 11:04AM |
| Ramgator | 125 | October 10, 2019 11:21AM |
| Rams43 | 118 | October 10, 2019 02:24PM |
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This web site is in no way affiliated with the NFL or the Los Angeles Rams.